The Situation Room: War in the Ukraine
Audio: 1hr 40 mins – Paul Plane Interviews Joaquin Flores for Time Monk Radio Network
In this special and exciting edition of the Situation Room, Paul Plane and CSS Director J. Flores discusses the rising possibility of a war in the Ukraine. Flores explains that we should see, this week, as much as a doubling of the mortality figures in the coming week alone compared to what we have seen since February. He gives a series of scenario projections along with various statistics of body counts for those scenarios.
This comes the aftermath of the Pravy Sektor massacre by arson of 40+ Pro-Russian protesters.
There is also new evidence that numbers were higher and that people were murdered by gun shot and other methods before being burnt here –> http://ersieesist.livejournal.com/813.html <
There is no turning back, and Flores discusses the reasons why Putin (and Shoygu) are not taking the Odessa bait. Rather, the Russians are waiting patiently until at least after May 11th when the referendum takes place. This referendum will place the question directly to residents of leaving Ukraine and joining the Russian federation.
Putin has already received authority from the Duma to use the military to take action in (the country formally still known as) Ukraine to protect Russian people. Shoygu has been working closely with other trusted establishment personnel to contain and control effects of the Kiev Junta violence in various parts of Ukraine. This will be of significance in order for further events to unfold in an orderly manner in the rest of the south of Ukraine, all the way to Odessa, where pro-Russian uprisings will occur in on a west-ward march along the Black Sea up until the Soviet Republic of Transdniestria.
They must wait until after the May 11th referendum, which is mostly why we see US efforts to attempt to provoke action before then. This leads to a series of interesting twists and turns which Mr. Plane and Mr. Flores delve into with much greater detail. ‘Who’ is gaming ‘what’ and ‘how’ are the big questions of the day for geopolitical and geostrategic analysts.
Kiev Junta has now fully armed and organized various Pravy Sektor members into a ‘Citizen’s Militia’ called Kiev-1. They will also include CIA military advisers and privateer army mercenaries of ‘Blackwater’ (Xe/Academi). http://academi.com/
Kiev-1 will operate as a combination death squad and irregular force given carte blanche to act with impunity. Many political activists and innocent bystanders will be killed.
This is aimed specifically at Russia in order to provoke a humanitarian response from Shoygu and Putin prior to May 11th.
Flores explains the likelihood of Russian’s ‘silent majority’ of European friends and allies in the German establishment having likely given Putin the green light to act and intervene to preserve the piece in the region, given Russia and Germany’s robust ties.
However this ‘green light’ is only as good as the western media machine – still in the hands of the NATO related intelligence machine – is unable to spin events any other way than at least ‘neutral’ towards Russia and Putin.
Various politicians on the European nationalist Right (e.g Le Pen) and radical Left have already been successful in planting the ‘talking point seeds’, memetically, within the discourse – in painting Putin’s actions as ‘understandable’.
Once a person’s actions are deemed rational, within the context of the liberal weltanschauung or schema, they cannot really be dismissed or even disputed (within the context of liberal’s universal moral relativism).
Thus, this has been a ground-breaking maneuver reflecting a high level of operational capacity on the intelligence level, from Moscow to Paris.
However this means that only the narrative of popular uprisings can be patterned by the actions of Moscow. This mirrors the discourse of the Arab Spring.
The CSS has previously – and originally – been the first among its peers to put forward the thesis that Russia had learned the methods of the Arab Spring and Color Revolution and is actively implementing them both within its sphere of historical influence but also Turkey and perhaps Syria. .
Flores also explains how these events reflect some of the work by Dugin, and others of the Eurasianist movement, to coordinate the activities and mutual understanding between elements of the radical or traditional right, including Russian nationalists, monarchists, and Cossacks on the one hand, and anti-imperialists, communists, and labor/working-class militants on the other.
Further projections and speculations are made on the efforts to nationalize the oligarchy and possibilities of the working class of Novorossiya and Malorossiya to effect gains through a combination class struggle and national struggle.
Boy I don’t know where to begin. A lot of very interesting points were made. I’ll number them so I make my viewpoints better organized.
1. The most crucial point that you made was the unity across “left and right” in the western countries. I put quotation marks around left and right because there’s been a sort of blending on many issues between them in the last few years. Issues like war, centralization of power, destruction of small businesses and farmers by large corporations and agribusiness, corruption of national cultures by Hollywoodish big entertainment corporations, gross intrusion into people’s private lives such as the NSA spying, etc. I come from the left but I have more in common with Pat Buchanan than I do with Bill Maher. Putin himself bridges this divide wonderfully in that he is at the forefront against the Anglo-American empire and he also has greatly promoted the Russian Orthodox Church. So there’s something the right and left can relate to with Putin. People around the world, from all stripes, are just sick and tired of the bailouts of the banks, the incessant invasions by Nato and just the worsening of their economic situation. All you have to be is just a member of the human race to be against the power elite.
2. You’ve now convinced me that the east and the south will be part of Russia. There’s no going back to the pre-Kiev putsch regime. The genie can’t be put back in the bottle. You can’t unscramble an egg. Time is on Putin’s side. Russia can just clandestinely supply the rebels with all the supplies that they need and drag out the fight out until the Kiev regime says uncle. Also letting the fascistness of the Kiev regime naturally come to the fore will also aid Russia in the propaganda war. A great point that you made was once Nuvo Rus is an autonomous republic of Russia, the economic benefits accrued to the population compare to what they had in the old Ukraine will smooth out some of the rough edges that some in population will feel. Anyhow Ukraine is an artificial construction set up Kaiser Germany during World War I. A good read is Webster Tarpley piece (http://tarpley.net/metaphysical-doubts-concerning-the-existence-of-modern-ukraine-a-1918-creation-of-the-german-general-staff/#more-6723). So after a few years the Russians of the east and south of Ukraine will feel like they never left Russia in the first place. It’ll be like a hand inside a glove.
3. The two aims of the US plot in Ukraine were to both destroy Russia and to sever the Russia-German growing alliance. A defeat for the US in the Ukraine will be the death knell for the unipolar world. Once the German-Russian alliance is solidified Poland, Romania and the rest of eastern Europe will come along for the ride. I don’t agree that after Ukraine is split up the US will be in any position to leapfrog both Germany and Russia to start a mini empire featuring Poland, Romania, Bulgaria, etc. (Rumsfeld’s New Europe). There’s nothing wrong for countries to trade with each other but it’s another thing to develop some kind of Eastern Europe alliance pitted against both Germany and Russia. Ain’t going to happen. Plus that’s also assuming that the US will be in a strong position both geostrategically and most importantly financially to arm twist countries very far away from it.
4. You guys alluded to a possible deal between Russia, once the US loses Ukraine. The assumption is that if the US leaves Russia alone now in the future to its neighborhood, Russia will butt out of Latin America. Uh uh also ain’t goin to happen. This is not the time of the great ideological battle pitting communism against capitalism with the balance of power shenanigans a la Kissinger-Nixon. China and Russia will trade with whoever they want to, damn the geopolitics. Russia and China are solely interested in markets for both selling their products and buying. There will be no deal. In fact Russia is again getting very heavily involved in Cuba but this time for development of oil and gas. I heard that Russia and China will develop the alternative canal in Nicaragua taking a lot of business away from the Panama Canal. And don’t forget the most important point. The B in BRICS of course is Brazil. And one other point. Latin America in general really hates US foreign policy so there’s no going back to the good old days of the Monroe Doctrine.
5. Syria just by surviving with Assad intact is another major defeat for the US and Israel and a great victory for Russia and Iran. There’s no plan B that the US already got what it wanted by ruining Syria’s economy. The US’s only plan was to destroy Syria along with Assad. There was no other plan. It’s all or nothing for them. Anyhow a Syria at peace will rebuild their country in a few years’ time and with the finished pipeline going from Iran through Syria, Syria will gain a lot of money from it. Israel will now face a battle hardened Syrian army and people who will never be afraid of Israel after what they have gone through.
6. The last but not least point I want to make is one that I haven’t heard you talk about, the demise of the Petrodollar. This is really the Achilles heel of US power. The growing accumulation of gold by the east is part of the establishment of a new financial regime in the world that will be an alternative to the IMF/World Bank and the hegemony of the dollar. This is the elephant in the room that the MSM don’t want to talk about. A good source on this is Jim Willie’s http://www.goldengackass.com. He has great connections regarding the reset of the global financial system away from the dollar.
Regarding ET’s not allowing humans to self-destruct, I highly recommend listening as much as you can to Dr. Steven Greer who is a hard nosed nuts and bolts kind of guy. He’s head of the disclosure project at http://www.disclosureproject.org/. He’s met with top generals and intelligence officials on the subject of ET and hidden black budgets using advanced navigation systems. For sure there is a higher cabal that controls the US and doesn’t allow the development of free energy. He has amazing videos showing contact with ET that undisputable.
One sight that unites the left and right is http://www.sgtreport.com. It’s from that site that I found out about you.
Keep doing good work.
1.) Yes, exactly, and this surge pushing beyond left and right is also happening in the east, and in fact the new geopolitics revolves around this fact. As I said, communists and nationalists and cossacks all fighting on the same side.
Both Far West and Eurasia are having this now. With W. Europe, it will be necessary for W.Europeans to explode the Christian Democracy center right and the Social Democracy center left. These have a hold on consciousness, but we can see this is starting to unravel as well
2.) Yes, and thanks for the Tarpley piece. I think Tarpley and I are both getting some of our info from similar sources. I am primarily reading daily from Russian and Ukrainian news and analysis sites, but my educational background being in Sovietology and GP/IR/SS with focus on law and ideology (I’m not a military guy).
Of interest to you may be that Tarpley’s mentor Larouche through EIR and I have a similar background with the James Robertson/Seymor formation of the ICL which split off of the SWP in the early 60’s. After his formal departure with Trotskyism, Larcouche made an interesting turn by intersecting the Liberty group and as such was able to break off chunks of the Birch society crowd.
Others from our tendency like James Burnham would intersect people like Leo Strauss and bring Kristol with him, going on to form the foundations of Neo-Conservatism.
3.) Yes, and more on that – I am still in social networks (at risk to my own safety, I’m in Belgrade, not far from Zagreb) with leadership of the Pravy Sektor and I am following this implosion on their end in real time. The dream of a new Middel-Europa from the Baltic to the Pontic is a pipe dream to be sure. Not only for the Atlanticists, but also for the Pravy Sektor themselves. You see the Polish Nationalists on the extreme far right end and the Ukrainian Nationalists on their parallel extremity have a significant problem. While leading intellectuals among these strains see the benefit of a large Middel-Europa ‘big space’, and while some Radical Nationalists and Far Right types in all of Europe, but relevant to this discussion I mean in Middel Europe and the Baltic are sympathetic to what the Pravy Sektor are doing, as they attempt to enter the ‘Second Revolution’, and have even engaged in activist tourism in Ukraine – there are significant problems.
The Poles and Balts have some common background with a centuries old super-state which rivaled both Russia and Germany, Kingdome of Poland and Lithuania. But they also have, in more recent times, a lot of each other’s blood on their hands. Nationalist circles tend to focus a lot on that.
Then the UPA/Banderista/Pravy Sektor trend is actually abhorrent to your mainstream radical Polish nationalists, because the UPA in WWII was decidedly anti-Polish and killed Poles en masse. Red Army successes in this period and in this region may in fact be related to the various infighting among Middel-European anti-Communists who were also struggling to have a ‘win-win’ relationship of any kind with German National Socialism.
I see that all of Middel-Europa east of Germany is today in this same predicament. They say neither NATO nor Eurasia – but are then stuck in an imaginary ‘third position’ which is neither geopolitically, economically, geostrategically, or ideologically viable. At fails on all four major counts/indicators.
4.) I agree with you generally here as well. What I would like to re-emphasize is that these ideas about a US return to Monroe Doctrine were floated for reasons outside of the scope of what I think is possible, viable, or even desirable. It is already a non-starter that the US would re-orient its trajectory out of Eurasia, the Middle-East, and Eurasia in general. They are paradigmatically incapable changing here.
I do think in purely abstract (presently impossible terms) that the US would only be able to reinvigorate itself if it were to focus on Latin America. But that brings up many other issues, especially about the ethnic, historical, and cultural identity of the US itself. It’s Anglo-Judeo, puritanical cum blackface minstrel culture (schizophrenically sex negative and sex positive) would have to be deconstructed, and alongside this process constructed a return to regional particularities bringing back or bring in various other identities, French, Latinic (Spanish, Hispanic, Latino), Carribean, Southern/”Confederate” etc. in order for a long term successful interfacing with Latin America. Also it would need to complete the process of enobling the Native American groups, changing the entire look/feel/framework of the US project and legitimizing it along some or any of the above described ways. It would look like an entire branding change, but in fact would have to represent an entire sea-change.
Would Russia and more importantly China go along with this? Again, I’m constructing conjecture upon hypothesis upon projection upon surmisings – so who knows.
At any rate, Latin America is cohering around it’s own version of the Amero, the SUCRE, and the entire project of Latin American economic integration growing out of MERCOSUR and similar is more and more a reality everyday. They are developing parallel gold-backed and virtual currencies. Militarily, though, it is still lacking and lacks any kind of unified command in those terms.
5.) While I agree absolutely with your conclusions in this area, there is always a plan B. In terms of development Syrian infrastructure is destroyed. It will take a decade (a lifetime in economic terms) to rebuild just to get back where they were in 2009. This gives a competitive advantage, because competition is in relative terms primarily, to both KSA and Israel as well.
Destroying the means of production, using the means of destruction, always sets back the hands of time, and pushes farther back into the future the arrival of an economic infrastructure capable of pushing humanity towards a post-scarcity gift type economy. This type of economy would tend to undermine the economic framework upon which the present petrol-based elite is based in, and also creates more horizontal (and less vertical) interactions both between peoples as individuals and between larger regions and whole peoples.
Of course you are right that once Syria finally wins, they will be hardened and the new economic infrastructure will ultimately derail Israeli aims. Surely this is true. But Israel is looking forward to the 10 year interim advantage, and in 10 years time (if it still exists) will be looking for the next opportunity to wedge in some advantage. They are kicking that can down the road, in essence.
6.) Thanks for the links, they are great. In purely technical/capacity terms, the US could switch off the petro-economy. But there are long standing trajectory problems, based in an ideological framework and also in the economic framework (oil economy) that the present junta in the US primarily is based in. The ruling class today in the US is too invested in Petrol, this is useful in terms of maintaining certain power structures due to the destabilizing factors that renewable energy sources bring along with them, including viability of post-scarcity economics and the rise of the next human developmental paradigm. More questions than answers here. Yes, I am familiar with Greer and Disclosure project. This is a whole other subject, one that CSS will be getting into over time. We have already made the decision to try to tie in the ‘silent majority’ of people who already believe in the ET/UFO phenomenon. Please see our graphic ‘CSS Young Pioneer’ depicting a fleet of UFO’s in the background.
Very good points. I just listened to this talk by “V” the guerilla economist. https://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_embedded&v=aeU-_lggFr0
He seems to have a clear understanding of Putin’s approach to Ukraine. He thinks that Ukraine is a trap for the US laid by Putin and Russia will just sit back and let nature take its course. He thinks that Ukraine is going to be the graveyard for the dollar. Interesting. From today’s developments Putin’s not going to overtly do anything and maybe V is right.
By the way what is Lyndon laRouche’s secret to longevity. The guy is 90 but he doesn’t look it and his mind is razor sharp. Amazing.
I’ve been busy with on the ground stuff, but yes Ukraine is another symptom of the imploding US reach. Hopefully for average americans, there are some saner heads back on wallstreet and DC who can prevail. More likely, more social unrest as has been planned for. As more countries stop trading in dollars, especially for petrol, then we’ll see more dollar problems. But China’s angle is something I’m relatively uninformed about, which serious prohibits my ability to make correct short term assessments. In the long term I’m clear that China will build up its own middle class, as it has been doing, and produce more and more for its own economy. I am aware that this is a long term plan. At the same time they will not so much promote the same western model of cultural consumerism, and are simultaneously preparing for a possible Cultural Revolution 2.0 and more crackdowns on their own rising millionaires.
As for dumping the dollar, this is something everyone has to do slowly, not in entirety, creating basket currencies including the dollar, with care, and not in a way which causes problems for everyone.
The US still does have a few hundred million consumers and that culture will have to shift tremendously.
The combination of planned obsolescence and consumerism are quite lethal in USA today.
Just a few comments on the show. I was one of the guys in it.
1-There is no question that there is a left-right understanding that the problem is the elite, and that they are a sort of establishment consensus that is lousy. The problem is getting decision makers to change. The electoral system is very rigged, and the media would rather go bankrupt than report the truth. So, what is to be done?
2-Of course, the Ukrainian identity in its current form is a Western production. Powerful folks in Germany, the US, plus the Catholic Church have been very busy in the Ukraine. I read that the Encyclopaedia Brittanica 1913 edition had no mention of the word “Ukrainian”, but am not sure. Those editions back then were quite good. They discussed things like Illumism/Illuminati in a serious way.
3-I don’t see an anti-Russian corridor as being feasible. I do, however, think that Russia needs to spend more money and energy on what Americans might call the “ground game”. Blocking and tackling in American football. As an example, I read a piece by someone in Russian diplomatic circles who said that the Ukraine was moving in the direction of a Swiss/Finland until March of 2013, when the EU double-crossed them. OK, but you cannot rely on bureaucrats in Brussels; you have to have groups on the ground inside the Ukraine. Same for Greece or Latvia. Even now, it seems like a lot of pro-Russian folks in the Eastern Ukraine feel like Russia is not really reliable.
4-Russia and China do not have the power projection necessary to do much in Latin America, at least not if the US is motivated to do something. The public in those countries may back a Correa or Ortega, and that is a big deal. But look at Venezuela. How much help is the government getting from China?
5-I will go with the basic discussion in the interview that the imperial powers have desires, A to F. Only a couple were achieved in Syria, and several negative things were “achieved”. Not at all what they planned on. This is adding to the bad blood in the Ukraine.
6-I have interviewed Jim Willie a couple of times. You can search for “plane truth” Willie or something like that. And the end of the petro-dollar standard is a huge deal – it is surprising how little attention is paid to this. The whole ET issue is really too long to discuss here. Perhaps somebody up there is watching out for us, because it certainly seems like many down here want to blow everything up.
Tarpley split with the LaRouche movement over a feeling that it had too much of a BND\Langley feeling about it. An example of that is the desire to impeach Obama over the last couple of years. We would be in worse shape if Biden had been in charge the last year or so. The LaRouche movement does very good work in many ways, so this is not to give them a hard time.
The possibility that the PTB in the US are trying to retrench a bit at home and roll out high-tech is worth contemplating. It looks like space development is about to occur. The public paid for trillions in black budget stuff, and a few insiders will get the profits. The big thing is that China’s low costs won’t matter so much when the robots come out. And some cheap energy technologies might only be, say, one-half the cost of the petroleum complex. In this case, it might be possible to introduce this selectively to US industry, with nothing for the non-Anglo Alliance countries.
I did listen to your interview with Jim Willie. He and “V” the guerilla economist are both on the same page regarding China and Russia attacking the petro dollar system. I hope they’re right. I just hear contradictory messages coming from Russia regarding this. Russia’s recent move to have their own credit card payment system and to charge Visa and Mastercard two days worth of transaction costs as a deposit is a good beginning to reclaim their national independence. But you hear comments from other officials stating that we can’t rock the boat regarding accepting payments other than dollars because it would be too de-stabilizing. This is just a guess but it appears there are two tendencies in the Russian elite, the nationalist and proud independence minded and the kiss-ass-to-the-west Medvedev types. This is probably why you hear contradictory things come out of them. I really don’t know the balance of power between both camps and where Putin fits in. The same goes for Lavrov the foreign minister. I get really annoyed when Lavrov continues to call the US and Nato countries partners when they’re anything but. The reality is that the Anglo-American powers will never accept any nation or groups of nations attaining equality with them. They truly despise Russia and will do everything possible to destroy it. If you’re a Russian elite and think there’s a possibility to change the west’s mind, forget it. It’s not going to happen. Starting with Kruschev, the Soviets and then the Russians have had this naive belief that if you just be nice with the West and reason with them and establish some ground rules then all will be just fine. The lamb and the wolf can become buddies. They need to have a different mind set on how to think of the west. However, the world has changed drastically since the drunkard Yeltsin times. China and Russia are infinitely more powerful and they don’t need to kowtow to Washington nor do they need to do any more business in the dollar. This is not the late 80’s and 90’s anymore when the west got its way 100% of the time. Even though Putin may want to avoid sending troops into the south and east Ukraine and also avoid a real serious no-holds-barred confrontation including financial war, the neo-con dominated elite in the US will not give him that luxury. Events on the ground will force Putin’s hand whether he wants to or not. He’s either going to behave like a real patriot defending his country militrarily and financially or he’ll give in a la Yeltsin. There’s no in between. It’s crunchtime for Russia.
There is probably another kind of elite around the world: those who want to go with a winner. Let us say you are a billionaire with business interests in Lebanon, Jordan, and perhaps Egypt. Your main concern should be to pick a winner in the local conflicts, as losing could mean the loss of your assets in the relevant country. So Russia has those who are not sure how things will go. Then comes the issue that destabilizing things is likely to lead to military force entering into the equation. So many nationalists in Russia are probably still quite hesitant to see overt military action as being desirable. Similarly, many in the US may see the current system in a very poor light, but would you really want a military coup? Things might get a lot worse.
You said that Russians can’t change the West’s mind. But which West? Countries in Middle and Central Europe do far more business with Russia than with the US, and the development of Eurasia will make it so damage to such a key country as Russia will severely damage a country such as Germany. Also, many powerful folks in the West go along with the aggressive approach because it is the path of least resistance. If Russia says they will fight, that changes the equation entirely. If China more-or-less backs Russia, then it really changes things.
In some ways, I think you are being a bit off in giving a Manichaean choice of two roads for Putin. I think he is already a real patriot, it is simply a question of which strategies and tactics to use. He has already achieved far more than what seemed possible ten years ago. If he decides to wait and let the Ukraine implode, that would be a decision that might be bad, but it wouldn’t be from a lack of patriotism. Russian history is full of letting the other guy exhaust himself with overextended supply lines. One imagines that just about every kind of threat was already used over Syria.
Unfortunately, way too many of the elite are tied to the West. I read that Tsarev’s kids are in British schools. Tsarev is Moscow’s man in the Eastern Ukraine at the moment. On the bright side, at least some understanding of how the enemy works can get through.
Paul, you’re absolutely right. I was reacting at the moment to Putin’s seemingly putting the kabosh on the referenda in the east Ukraine. I had a knee-jerk reaction of “Oh oh here we go again. Russia giving in again a la 90’s Yeltsin.” But after a day of really thinking about it and reading different analysts I now think that it was a masterstroke of diplomacy. The Russian leadership is really keeping their eye on the big picture, i.e. the Eurasia project and the world situation. Putin doesn’t want to take any rash action that could play into the hands of the Neocons. I’m convinced this entire reason for the Ukraine coup is to bait Russia into doing irresponsible actions. Putin knows exactly what the west is trying to accomplish. Imagine that the massacre of 40 people in Odessa was staged to provoke Russia to invade. What a bunch of psychopaths and sociopaths are people like Nuland, CIA chief Brennan, Hilary Cliinton, Samantha Power, etc. that human life means nothing to them. People’s lives are to be spended for some wacky political scheme. It’s really disgusting. But the world is really seeing the contrast between these western psychopaths and the calm and tension reducing actions of the Russians. The more that Putin lets this thing drag out the more splits will occur in the west. In fact Victoria Nuland was really grilled at a congressional hearing by congressman Rohrbacher a republican mind you along with other ones. You may be seeing dissension in the ranks of the US elite. Maybe Obama could be stopped on the brink of war in the Ukraine like he was stopped on the brink of war in Syria last year. Could be. The world can see that the ball is in the US court to stop this war. Unless the US tells the Kiev junta puppets to call it off, you will see escalating military action. After the referendum votes to bring eastern provinces independence and possibly the second referendum to become part of Russia and if the US gives the green light to the junta to escalate the violence, then Putin will have no choice to invade and he will have legality and world public opinion on his side. He is just waiting until the time is right and where it becomes obvious to the world why he has to do it.
You’re right about Putin. He definitely is a patriot and he has shown in the last ten years infinite wisdom and consistency. Russia always has infinite patience because they are a very old culture. They know through their history how easy it is to destroy but how long it takes to build. The Great Patriotic War was an earth shattering event for them. They, unlike the US, know what war is like.
Thanks for correcting me.