By: Paul Antonopoulos – CSS Project Director; MENA and Latin America Research Fellow
Changing Turkish-Russian Relations
Turkey appears unable to grasp Russia’s resolve and long-term planning
ovember 24 2015 will forever mark the turning in Turkish and Russian relations. The Russian Sukhoi Su-24M tactical bomber jet was shot down by two Turkish F-16 Fighting Falcon jets. The Russian bomber was conducting sorties upon the request from Damascus. Despite Putin immediately calling for Turkey’s military attaché in Moscow, Ankara had refused to apologise for the downing of the jet. The attack resulted in a pilot being shot down by Turkmen Islamists who was parachuting to land, and a Russian commando also killed in the rescue operation for the second pilot. Putin in speaking with the Hashemite King Abdullah II of Jordan, described the attack as a ‘stab in the back, carried out against us by accomplices of terrorists.’
Electric Yerevan & Lessons on the Color-Spring Tactic
he Electric Yerevan protest provides us with an excellent opportunity to review some of the basic underlying mechanics and psychology of the Color-Spring tactic. It is important to share these publicly, for it is indeed probable that the Color-Spring tactic will be increasingly applied in the world as a “hybrid soft-power/hard-power tactic”.
A moral principle held by Gene Sharp, who was one of the tactic’s main developers, was that violence is not necessary for revolution. What is strange, contradictory, even dishonest here is that violence is reduced taxonomically to the physical violence of the state’s gendarmes against the civilians. But we know that violence comes in many forms.
We live in a time of great violence; physical, psychological, legal, economic, spiritual violence. Not only has the Color Revolution tactic engendered the latter four, but its mutation into the Arab Spring tactic also employs heinous physical violence. We can see today, tens of thousands dead in Libya, hundreds of thousands in Syria, and a mounting figure in Ukraine which threatens to surpass the precedents.
The Color Revolution Model: An Exposé of the Core Mechanics
[ Note: The Color Revolution and Arab Spring phenomenon is one which receives particular attention at CSS, because it is one of the primary tactics used in geopolitics and geostrategy which also relies on a syncretic or interdisciplinary model. It involves mass psychology, marketing and advertising, sociology, ideology, and a range of other fields. This piece should be understood as a schematic with explanatory annotations and dissection of particular mechanisms. We strongly recommend this to be read alongside several previous pieces which explore the history, figures involved in developing the theory, and real-world application in the following pieces featured here at CSS –
Sunday’s election sees an increase in ‘anti-Russian’ representation in the Rada: US-backed Pravy Sektor and Svoboda pressure on the US-backed Kiev Junta corroborates a Phase 3 plan, as the Kiev Junta may resume major operations. The US needs to create a failed state in Ukraine to advance its agenda, with Poroshenko getting caught in the middle. Both sides vie for the 4GW advantage, while being careful to not lose site of reality from the expanding hyper-reality.
A Note to Readers: This is the 6th installment of a series of related reports on the real underlying methods and framework which characterize the Ukrainian civil war. These are thorough in exploring and explaining, in as full a way as possible, the most relevant factors which operate upon this phenomenon. Like our previous works on the subject, this report is approximately 50 pages at about 15,500 words. In addition to these six reports, there are another dozen or so shorter articles on the subject to be found on our site, as well as about two dozen interviews and podcasts, which can be found either in the multimedia section or embedded in the shorter articles where indicated. Being familiar with our past reports makes this report more flexible. A reader is then able to read each chapter as a stand-alone article
he election of Sunday, October 26th, was called by Poroshenko to ostensibly push the government into an even further anti-Russian position. On the face of it, the election aimed to escalate what has been termed a ‘lustration’ process . This fits well into the common narrative, being that Poroshenko is directly controlled by the US to push against Russia. While this is true, there is also another more complex dynamic unfolding, which will be explored in this report. Continue reading →