It’s Official: Kiev Junta Has Lost Control
video below – 17 minutes — Interview of Joaquin Flores by Maurice Herman
Oleksandr Turchinov all but capitulated on April 30th, with clear statements that he has entirely lost control of the Army and the ‘East’ of Ukraine. However, not controlling the army also means that he has lost control of the entire Kiev based regime and the whole rump-state of Ukraine along with it.
In this interview, international relations and security analyst Mr. Flores explores some of the following implications and items related to this momentous statement from Kiev.
– Tsarev heeds Dugin’s advice/warning, meaning referendum election will result in secession from Ukraine
– May Elections in east and south will be marred by violence by Pravy Sektor and NATO Mercenaries; to be blamed on Russia and western media to declare ‘null election result’.
– Globalization being reversed, toothless western sanctions, rise of BRICS and multipolarity
– All oblasts and areas that voted Party of Regions in the past will eventually join Russia
Reblogged this on ElderofZyklon's Blog!.
Good interview. I am curious why he made that public statement about the loss of control.
Do you think that the private radicals will unleash some violence before the election? What about the idea that there is a move to seal the military inside the rebel republics? Not sure if the idea would be to get the equipment quickly or to prevent an attack. Finally, what do you think the strategy is to get Kharkov? Isn’t early May the time to go on the attack? All the holidays and symbolism of winning WWII. How were violent gangs countered in Yugoslavia?
Good question, he may be afraid that he will be held accountable for things that CIA mercenaries and their Pravy Sektor allies will do now, even though he will be at any rate.
I think we are seeing the pravy sektor and radicals are unleashing violence before the election … also ‘which’ election … the Donbass region referendum will be before the May 25 elections by several weeks.
Can you help with the question about Kharvok? Who to go on the attack? Russia does not need to attack. The US wants Russia to attack. Russia needs Germany and Europe to become more demanding that Russia ‘do something’. Russia will support the efforts of Federalists in Ukraine until they pass referendums to perhaps join Russia.
Gangs of any substance were absorbed into various paramilitary units. Yugoslavia didn’t survive the NATO attack, however.
Perhaps the issue of Kharkov comes down to my general feeling that one should use momentum and morale, and the idea of forcing an opponent to defend in multiple locations. If the junta had to worry about defending many cities right now, they would not be as organized at attacking Donetsk and Lughansk. They would be putting their forces right now around Kharkov. Thus the need for a struggle there. It seems rather optimistic to me to say “We are going to have referendums on May 11th in these two locations, and that is all we intend to do.” I would feel relieved if I were in the planning side for the junta team – it looks like fairly clear plans and goals are right in sight.
Now compare things to right after the Crimean vote. It was the Russian Spring, and motivation and morale were high, and the American side was obviously caught a bit flat-footed with the way things had turned out. This was the time to push a color revolution or a quick vote in Donetsk and Lugansk. Official observers wouldn’t have been happy, but there won’t even be any international observers on May 11th, if anyone even gets to vote.
So my thinking was that Russia did need to attack. The only point to playing defense is to counter-attack. You don’t actually want to play defense forever – it’s basically hopeless. Look at Syria, and they “won”. Russia counter-attacked against Georgia in 2008 and in the Crimea. And they won.
Pingback: VIDEO — It’s Official: Kiev Junta Has Lost Control | PN
I’m so happy to have a native southern California writing such intelligent articles and doing great interviews. Your understanding of the geopolitical events in the world are in in accord with mine. I’m following your talks and articles on a daily basis and look forward to it.
I don’t know if you know Paul Craig Roberts but he was in the Reagan administration and is a really wonderful critic of the economy and the Neo cons. Here is a letter that I sent him in his alarming response to the recent events in Ukraine.
Dear Dr. Roberts,
While I agree with you 100% on the events in the Ukraine, I feel you’re a little too alarmist on the dangers of Russia not militarily intervening in the southeast areas. It’s now a civil war caused by US/Nato but I think it will be contained within the Ukraine and not spread to Russia proper. Russia has much bigger fish to fry then annexing the Russian parts of Ukraine, at least for now. The main strategy of Russia right now is to split Europe, and especially Germany, from the US. Russia has a great grasp on the internal dynamics inside of Germany and they are doing everything they can to help along the forces of peace and German-Russian integration and to isolate the pro Atlanticist forces. Please read this article in Debka which I find the best analysis that I have read on the US-German-Russian dynamic (http://debka.com/article/23890/Ukraine-slides-into-civil-war-amid-Merkel%E2%80%99s-bid-to-bridge-US-Russian-differences-Putin-resigns-responsibility). I think Obama is getting a lot of rope in which to hang himself on this. I’m sure that Putin is counting on the right wing forces to do what they do best, murder and mayhem. Putin wants to clearly show the world and Germany in particular who are the instigators of the violence and that it becomes obvious that the Russian citizens of Ukraine have no choice but to defend themselves. I think the situation will get so bad in Ukraine and the threat of a pipeline disruption (maybe caused by the right lunatics) will become so real that the Germans in particular will become heavily involved to find a solution which will objectively put them at loggerhead with Obama and the neocons. Who knows Germany may get so alarmed that they might actually call for Russia to intervene. Anything’s possible. At that point Putin will have the blessing of Germany and Europe. A pipedream, maybe or maybe not (no pun intended). The heavy industry sectors may demand Russia to do something. Putin is just going to let nature take its course and show the world who the real villains are. If Putin intervenes with the military then this could pre-empt the division between Germany and the US. Timing is everything and I believe that Putin, Lavrov, etc. are masters of it. I disagree with you somewhat that the Europeans and specially the Germans are US puppets. Yes some sections tied to Nato are but not the rest of Germany. Putin is very popular in Germany and Putin is playing this to the hilt.
Just don’t worry. It will work out eventually. However, hang on to your seatbelts. It’s going to be quite a ride for the next years.
I basically agree with what you’re saying, and Dr. Roberts has been a bit out of proportion with all of this. The Debka.com article more or less summarizes the situation rather well. You are absolutely right, in my view, that there is more than one Germany, and that Germany by in large is already well on its way with Eurasian integration as part of Berlin-Moscow axis. Both Warsaw and Tehran figure into this significantly.
I would, however, consider the following. German industrialists and others of significance in Europe may have already given the ‘green light’ to Russia to handle things. The public pronouncements and the way the European MSM will gradually morph on this question over the coming weeks will be evidence of this. But those normally tail behind the actual developments. The ‘public’ has to be steered, and this requires several stages of transforming the discourse.
Svoboda, Pravy Sektor and other Rumsfeld oriented friends, following the orders of their US bosses, are already openly discussing the sabotage of the pipelines. Because they are the Wahhabis in this situation, their followers have no idea that this will turn events very openly and very quickly against them (more than they already are), because Europe will be forced to unambiguously call for Russian intervention. It will also, de facto, lead to the end of NATO.
You are also quite right that Russia had much bigger fish to fry than the accretion of half of Ukraine. However, consider the following – they were essentially handed this on a platter, and since the eastern half of the country is the wealthy productive half, and since the source of the initial European part of the February problem was precisely the problem of taxable goods in relation to the EU Association Agreement, the orientation towards accretion was made as events unfolded.
Also, federation with Russia is what the majority of these people want and see as the only viable alternative now with Tsarev out of the race.
What do you think the plans of the Kiev junta are now. They seem to be going for broke on attacking and defeating the pro federalists in the east. They are taking marching orders from the IMF and Washington. Will they succeed in smashing the uprising at least in the town centers. I don’t think that the regular army grunts are doing the killing but paid mercenaries of the Blackwater type and the right sector are the culprits. But do they have more firepower than the rebels. If they succeed in destroying, at least temporarily, the uprising, they will go after all of the main organizers using Wahhabist like death squads to promote a reign of terror against the Ukrainian Russian population. In your opinion can they succeed. If so would this be the trigger for a massive Russian intervention to save Russians in the east. If the Russians invade even before there is a threat to the pipelines will the MSM in Germany swing to the side of Russia. I know that Russia is interested in the timing of events but sometimes events themselves can shelve the best laid plans and call for a definitive response.
Using Germany as a proxy for Europe in general, there seems to be a very contradictory process going on in Europe. You have German Nato/intelligence fanning the flames of war in the Ukraine but you have major industrialists completely against any sanctions. The German EU member reps seem to also support Nato but less clearly. And there must be some overlap of EU members reps with industrialists. Russia will have to decide if the industrialists have the gumption and the ability to stay the hands of the maniacs before there is all out war. I’d like to think that the sane ones will win out but history shows that irrational and insane forces do sometimes persevere (WWI for example). The Russians may tell the German industrialists, “Hey I know you mean well and we have this great economic relationship but I don’t think you will be able to stop Nato so we will have to do what we have to do even if that means your MSM will condemn us and maybe ruin our economic relationship.” I do think that Putin holds all the cards and so most likely this scenario won’t come to pass. But in the end Russia will look out for their national interests and will let the chips fall where they may.
On a side note, since you live in Serbia, I really think and felt at the time of the Nato aggression in 1999 that Milosevic and his army could have held out for a very long time. His army was using guerilla tactics of camoflauge with Nato planes bombing phony military targets and Nato not daring to actually invade Sernia with soldiers with an army that was trained in Tito like guerilla tactics. But Chernomyrdin sold him down the drain. I think he was one of the western leaning oligarchs. I believe he is an Ukrainian oligarch. It’s interesting that this aggression happened at the end of Yeltsin’s rule and right before Putin got in. Maybe the Russian/Ukrainian traitors told Nato that you better do the aggresion against Serbia now before the changing of the guard next year.
Response to May 4th @ 9pm message
Gary – Yes, all good questions you raise. I have addressed most of them in our latest brief, which is only complete with the audio part. Paul Plane conducted the interview. Please see our latest CSS update, may 5
Best wishes and many thanks for your insights, and the recommended reading was great too.
Joaquin – I can’t find the update. Has it not been posted yet.
Gary and Joaquin,
Perhaps a big question comes down to how much pain Putin can handle. The fire of nationalism has been stoked inside Russia, and he said he would protect folks from massacres. If he does nothing as thousands get killed and more have to flee, his popularity will likely go down dramatically. A guy whose popularity is based on being a strong father is not worth much if he seems weak due to business interests or an unwillingness to see the GDP hurt.