The Beautiful Truth about Minsk II & The Debaltsevo Debacle
n February 12th, on the day Minsk II was signed by the contact group as agreed to by the Normandy 4, we wrote:
“These are the relevant factors which produce the strong sense that these Normandy 4 meetings involve some very serious things and some complex levels that are beyond the scope of what is reported. Russia conducts itself in these meetings from a position of strength.”
Critical events since the February 12th ceasefire tell us what the real underlying factors beyond the scope of what was reported indeed were. With the Ukrainian Army having been encircled in the Debaltsevo region and without provisions, mass surrenders are already underway. There are already reports of thousands of UAF dead. Close fighting in the town itself have resulted in the UAF being pushed out, with the town now under Novorossiyan control. The UAF had nowhere to go, and were out of ammo.
Attempts to push out anywhere resulted in more needless deaths for the disheartened and broken Ukrainian force whose numbers range between five and eight thousand. Putin has publicly urged Poroshenko to allow the UAF soldiers to surrender. Unsurprisingly, Poroshenko has declared victory.
Mainstream and Alternative Approaches to Regional Subsystems
Multipolarity, Big Spaces, Eurasianism, Ethnogenesis, and the Clash of Civilizations
[The following brief is from a series in our exclusive collection of the previously unpublished notes and works of the author – Ed. (JV Capone)]
he mainstream approach towards regional subsystem (RSS) formation is that it is formed on the common perception of friends vs. enemies, amity vs enmity. Buzan and Weaver also state that a RSS is a so-called “structured region” that may not necessarily be geographically contiguous. Continuing along the tangent of a RSS being created through perceptions (the constructivist IR school), then it is evident that there most definitely exists RSS in North America and Europe. North America (the US, Canada, and to a large extent, Mexico) have the same perceptions of threats and challenges. All three states also cooperate extensively in their economic relations via NAFTA, reinforcing the liberalist theory that institutional measures may bring states closer together through shared interests.
Europe, in the context of the EU, contains a myriad of states, but by and large, none of the members have any uncontrollable enmity towards one another. They do not view the governments of fellow EU members as threats to their security, although they may have internalized certain stereotypes about their neighbors that affect their dealings with other ethnic groups. Nonetheless, none of the EU member states are preparing for war against one another, and any type of rivalry between them is principally economic, not military. Continue reading →
Russia and Turkey’s Gas Deal can Save Europe and the World
he status of South Stream and the newly announced Russia-Turkey gas deal is much more than it seems. It is primarily about putting the brakes on what has slowly been developing into the next world war.
This new deal may also represent a serious culmination of Russian, Chinese, and Iranian efforts to realign the entire bandwidth between the Adriatic Sea and India. This has ramifications not only for the EU, Bulgaria, and Turkey, but also Syria, Egypt, Israel, Iran, China and most of Latin America. Its effects reach far beyond the scope of this report, and includes currency wars, and military alliances.Continue reading →
By: Leonid V. Savin (translated by Kristina Kharlova)
The Future Of Eurasia: Prolegomena for the Geopolitical Integration of the Continent
The beginning of the 21st century has not been as rosy as it was described by futurologists and planned by politicians: a global financial crisis, problems within the Eurozone, the “swamp” for American troops in Iraq and Afghanistan, armed conflicts in Central Europe, North Africa and the Middle East, a series of color revolutions in the post-Soviet space, and riots in the capitals of Western Europe. It would seem that with modern technology, historical heritage and conventional agreement on human rights Europe has already defined its future and, if not is following the planning, but at least is maintaining regulatory policy in the area of its responsibility. However, current developments indicate that everything turned out to be more complicated. The world has entered a zone of geopolitical turbulence, with multi-level processes, new challenges and asymmetric responses.Continue reading →