What will be Happening in the Next Days and Months in Ukraine?

Small Logo  By: Boris Nad

Boris-Nad

Is armed conflict with Russia and Ukraine in sight?  Will the armed forces of Ukraine in general able to lead this war?

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The Pentagon chief Even Hagel recently praised the Ukrainian army, “the astonishing restraint” in the dispute with Russia.  This is entirely in line (unconvincing) with Kievan propaganda “Ukrainian soldiers are extremely patient, do not react to provocations and do not leave their units … The commander of the Ukrainian army personally thanked the soldiers for loyalty oaths and resisting warmongering intentions neighbors.” It is the attitude of the military commentator of Radio Television Serbia, which is at the very beginning, “the Russian invasion of the Crimea,” praised the ability of the Ukrainian army to resist, citing the most accurate statistical data on its composition. Not relevant to its assessment of motivation to initiate and lead this war.

UKRAINIAN ARMY DOES NOT EXIST

The facts speak otherwise. Operation of the Russian army in the Crimea was performed clinical precision, without casualties and without a single shot being fired. Ukrainian bases and garrisons were blocked, most of the troops surrendered, the units were “samoraspustile” or sworn in a new government in the Crimea.  It speaks of the high professionalism of the Russian army.  On the other hand, the commander of the Ukrainian Navy, just one day after the appointment, he transferred to the Russian side.  Special Regiment of Ukrainian troops from KIROVGRAD refused the orders from Kiev that they go to the Crimea.  Crimean force self-defense now has 45 combat aircraft, which is approximately a quarter of the Ukrainian Air Force.  Success declared mobilization, and according to official figures, does not exceed 1.5 percent (a more realistic figure is still 0.5 per cent).

To understand what is really going on, it is enough to mention the words of one Western military commentators, who compares the equipment of the Ukrainian and Russian soldiers: the first looks something like a soldier from the 80’s, or a Russian soldier from the time of the first Chechen war, the other is equipped with all standards 21 century. Miroslav Lazanski pertinent concludes: “(…) the main problem (the Ukrainian army) is a state of combat morale, lack of motivation of the armed forces, who saw what was happening in the Ukrainian society, massive corruption and irregularity of much of the fighting techniques.  On the other hand, Russia has clear objectives, monolithic and well-trained army and unified leadership of the state.  So, the chances of the Ukrainian army went to the Crimea are not theoretical in character.  They do not have to give, no one and no place. ” It is, finally, grudgingly admitted the Ukrainian deputy Gennady Rade Moskaljova “We have twenty-two years we built the Ukrainian army. I’ll tell you something of a state secret, which is that we do not have anywhere to fly, as we do not have to fight, we have nothing. Who to mobilize what? What to give the soldiers? Masks? ”

Israeli analyst James Kedma on this occasion made it very clear, in an almost brutal assessment: “As to the possible conflict with the Russian Army, the Ukrainian, the Ukrainian army simply does not exist. There is no such concept. The Ukrainian army has long been disarmed and robbed. There are people who wear the uniform of the Ukrainian Army – likely part of these people to try to prevent the Russian army to take over strategic facilities in Ukraine.  But it will not have any significance. ”

The Ukraine is not ready to fight as the Ukrainian army, but rather paramilitary neo-Nazis from Galicia, mercenaries, militants and Russophobes the right sector and similar organizations.  But it will not be for the interests of Ukraine, but the U.S. political elite, against Russia and against Europe.  In the increasingly complex Ukrainian crisis, only one force – the United States – in the interests of the flare of the war in Ukraine, and they will do everything to make it occur.

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NOTHING IS DECIDED IN KIEV

It is now clear that nothing is independent of the Kiev junta.  Incompetent leaders of “evromajdana” can be compared only with the incompetence of the Obama administration. The protagonists of the coup was what they were from the beginning, but now without a mask: mere puppets of the west.  Kiev thus does not resemble the “scene of national revolution,” but rather the puppet theater.  Some of the moves the new rulers seem wrong or out of place (the decision to conduct mobilization), others again tragicomic: such as, for example, the claim that Ukraine is received by accelerated procedure in the EU or NATO, which was initiated by the party of Yulia Tymoshenko.  However, it is possible that the Kievan stage right now preparing for the next act of the bloody drama. But there is no doubt in that time does not work for Kievan junta.

Meanwhile, insurgents are facing rebellion in the southeast, with the “Russian Spring”, which does not only involve the Russians, but what is surprising to many, and ethnic Ukrainians and members of many other nations.  Reply regime that was predictable: the appointment of the notorious Ukrainian oligarchs for Governor, and an attempt to quell the rebellion by the engagement of (semi) private armies, and NATO special forces, like the way they carried out a coup in Kiev.  Those protests gave a new note: the struggle against the coup government (the new government in Kiev also make the old oligarchs, such as Yulia Tymoshenko) received a social color.  Trying to thereby suppress the rebellion, however, insurgents must pay careful attention not to cross the red line in the escalation of violence which has been set by Moscow.  In his address, President Vladimir Putin was clear: Russia reserves the right to intervene militarily in Ukraine.

It’s just part of the problems we are facing today illegitimate government.  The other is extremely difficult, and more difficult and dramatic situation in the territory of Ukraine that it still controls.  For two to three weeks, according to many estimates, it will face a drastic worsening of the social situation, very likely with the inability to pay salaries and pensions or to pay off foreign debts, all at a time when the Ukrainian economy or paralyzed or completely destroyed.  Those who had hoped for a real Western aid, financial or military might, we can not abandon such hopes.  What will then happen to Majdan in Kiev, which already ravaged by armed gangs, which is most of the already out of control junta?

CRIMEA IS THE FIRST STEP

Russian strategy in the Ukrainian crisis, by contrast, is quite clear: she generously supported by the residents of the southeast area to form its own military and political structures.  Crimea is that only the first step.  The incoming of the new authorities are now taking place more or less peacefully.  The final act would have to happen in Kiev by will of the citizens of Ukraine, rather than the intervention of the Russian army.  Until that happens, the Ukrainian crisis remains a subject of great power confrontation.

There is no reason for Russia to change its strategy towards putschists, especially because it demonstrates effective.  Tickets are, after Kiev coup, in Putin’s hands.  The Ukrainian crisis threatens to turn into a long-term game of nerves between Washington and Moscow (and not Kiev and Moscow, or Berlin and Moscow), where either side will be excluded the use of force.  The use of force on the Russian side must include the willingness to use nuclear weapons if, according to the American terms, its vital interests are threatened, and Ukraine is Russia’s vital interests.  Moscow has not yet been shown that it is too much impressed by threats, threats of military and economic sanctions, to which Washington insists.  There’s no reason for it: Russia is ready to fight back against them with reciprocal measures (discussed already, said advisor to the President of Russia Sergey Glazijev), and China, to the surprise of many, clearly sided with the Russian side.  After all, far from all the demands of the United States were met with unison approval of the West.  Dividing line roughly follows one from the time of the Syrian crisis, when many Western countries have shown opposition or at least restraint towards U.S. plans to start an open war, an air campaign against Assad’s forces.  The war in Ukraine is especially not in Germany’s interest as proved quite recent statement of the German Foreign Minister Frank-Walter Steinmeier, who warned America that even the exclusion of Russia from the G8 is only possible at the expense of the West.  Possible war is too close to the border of Germany and its government calls for restraint.

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COUP TECHNIQUE OF 22 FEBRUARY

“Evromajdan” is actually from the very beginning was directed not only against Russia but against Europe.  American demands that Russia implement economic sanctions and blocking Russian assets, which primarily affected Germany, and then the EU economy as a whole, only a continuation of the same, anti-European strategy of the United States.

Secret History “evromajdana” confirms this hypothesis. William Engdahl in his brilliant analysis resembles the chronology of events.  Breakpoint indicates a phone call Deputy Secretary of State Nuland with the U.S. ambassador in Moscow, in which she rejected the decision of the EU juicy comment: “Fuck the EU” After that, says Engdahl, the Europeans are trying to prevent radicalization announced, a German Foreign affairs with French and Polish counterpart comes to Kiev.

“USA”, underlines Engdahl, “were not invited.” And further: “The intervention of the EU without Washington presents exceptional event and reveals the growing divide between them the past few months. Practically speaking, therefore, EU said to the U.S. State Department: “Fuck the US. ”

The American response to this is well known: The hard-won diplomatic compromise “did not last even twelve hours. Then all hell broke loose “(see Engdahl).

The answer to the question of who is using snipers that night, after the publication of the interview and the Estonian foreign minister Catherine Ashton, he was expected epilogue.

Sources within the U.S. intelligence services, as further stated William Engdahl, claiming that “snipers were members of far-right military organization called the Ukrainian National Council – Ukrainian National Self-Defense (UNA-UNSO) … The leader of UNO-UNSO Andrei Skil was ten years ago adviser Julius Tymoshenko.  During the ‘Orange Revolution’, conducted by the United States 2003-2004, UNO-UNSO supported candidate Viktor Yushchenko … ”

However, UNA-UNSO is no Ukrainian nationalist organization, but part of the NATO organization GLADIO, which since the collapse of the Soviet Union stands behind every revolt against Russian influence.  The list is very long, except Lithuania, Chechnya or Georgia, it includes Kosovo.  In a word: “These people are dangerous mercenaries that are used throughout the world in dirty wars NATO … They are bottom feeders, and forget the stories of their nationalism, these are people who sights sniper rifles,” says Engdahl.

Russia is now not only fighting for themselves – it is fighting for Europe, no matter how paradoxical it may sound today, of course, not that liberal, occupied and scared, Europe, with its caricature leaders.  It’s a fight for a multipolar world – a world without American hegemony, and therefore it does not exist, or there may be a third party.  If Russia loses this battle, the alternative is no longer a “new world order”, but global chaos. Pale shadow of the upcoming chaos we had a chance to see at the Kiev Majdan during the night of 21 and 22 February.

We should not therefore have no illusions that this will be an easy fight.  The American political elite is no longer true elite.  Nowadays its just people with mediocre capabilities. Their actions are not rational because the estimates are, as a rule, are wrong, and their main driver is fear of the inevitable collapse of American global hegemony in any way.  And precisely because it is an extreme danger to the East tomorrow and Western Europe, the Near and Middle or Far East, to South America, for Ukraine as well as Russia.

(Translated by J. Flores)
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One Response to What will be Happening in the Next Days and Months in Ukraine?

  1. Pingback: Boris Nad: Co stanie się na Ukrainie w najbliższych dniach i miesiącach?

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