Pravy Sektor Coup as ISIS Scenario: NATO to Feign a ‘Unilateral’ Alliance With Russia
The US stages a coup ousting Poroshenko and installs Pravy Sektor in order to build international support for a Human Rights intervention against Pravy Sektor and to restore ‘democracy’ and ‘order’; the real aim being to create a failed state, perpetuate indefinite war on Russia’s door and even World War … and beyond
Audio Interview on this subject: 2 hours
he time has come to explore the growing possibility of a US covert funding of a Pravy Sektor putsch against the pseudo-constitutional republican junta led by Poroshenko. Also required is an examination of the relevant factors surrounding it. This may prove a necessary strategy towards the ultimate desired position of the US, that being to continue the infinite game scenario which the US is pushing in the former Ukraine. While naturally, as in the field of geostrategic forecasting, we cannot claim this to be a foregone eventuality. Based on how developments have materialized as of the date of publishing, we now have this at a less than 40% probability of occurrence. However, the more that public awareness of this increases, it may mitigate either its occurrence chance, or if implemented, its efficacy.
Liberal Western audiences will easily be whipped into a hysteria about the Pravy Sektor, and for a NATO R2P type action of sorts in the former Ukraine. It will be more effective on the propaganda front in many ways than the ‘War on Terror’. At least Western left-liberals are by in large skeptical of claims that ‘all’ Muslims are terrorists, but there is no doubt that all Nazis are Nazis. This is a significant point.
Nazis are far worse than Islamic Terrorists, and more over, in the western mind, Nazis are far worse than Communists, even Russian Communists. This has created a new quasi-secular religion in the West: one where everyone is compelled to worship Hitler as an Evil Demi-God who demands the never ending blood sacrifice of ‘very bad people’ in order to avert his own very resurrection upon the temporal plane.
Any theory regarding a possible strategic scenario which takes into account the known facts including the known positions, and provides realistic solutions for each of the existing problems, requires further consideration. Additionally when this is also modeled after a strategy which has already been employed before, and moreover is being presently employed in the middle-east with ISIS/ISIL, it becomes even more necessary to consider.
As we have previously written and discussed for the last nine months, as exampled by our February 27th video interview/presentation with transcript titled ‘Right Sector are the Wahhabis in Ukrainian Spring‘, the immediate aim of the US is in creating a never ending mid-level conflict-war in the region, with the long-term goal of:
1.) Destroying Europe and Russia economic integration
2.) Delegitimizing the Russian state, and,
3.) Breaking Russia up ultimately into ten or more mutually hostile statelettes comprised from the 85 present subjects of the Russian Federation.
Once it is understood that these, and not “peace, European integration and development” are US goals, the efficacy of this kind of US plan can be better understood. The US wants to reduce the European economy as well, this strengthening its own both in relative terms and by filling in the gaps created in absolute terms. As an infinite game, it requires changing the rules to keep the game going. First the the rule was to support ‘democratic rule’ in Ukraine through ‘moderates’ like Poroshenko and to pretend that Pravy Sektor are not ultra-right neo-nazi types. And if this is leading eventually soon to a resolution, regardless of the outcome, then the rules change to keep the game going.
Stages of the Strategy:
*The Media Spectacle Warms Up
*Premised that US and Russia already agree: Poroshenko is the Moderate (or better than the alternative)
*The US Makes sure Poroshenko Loses on the Political and Military Fronts
* The Execution (In Chapters)
* Regional War – Total War: Problems and Solutions
The Media Spectacle Warms Up – Just like In Syria
The Pravy Sektor in this hypothetical scenario finally are recognized as neo-nazi ‘fanatics’, and roundly condemned. One clue, as with the case in the middle-east with Al-Nusra split from the FSA, and ultimately ISIS, would be the ramping up of media attention. After the chemical weapons de-escalation situation, the western official MSM began to report more about atrocities carried out by Al-Nusra and then ISIS/ISIL. We are seeing a somewhat similar pattern emerge in the last week or two in the western press.
Bear in mind that the more distance that western press can create between the ‘regular’ army of Poroshenko and the ‘unaccountable’ and ‘war crimes’ nature of the Pravy Sektor battalions (Aidar, Azov, etc.) the easier it will be to sell this falsehood to the public.
For example, we have seen this report by George Soros’s Open Society Institute funded group Amnesty International of September 8 titled:
“DOCUMENT – UKRAINE: ABUSES AND WAR CRIMES BY THE AIDAR VOLUNTEER BATTALION IN THE NORTH LUHANSK REGION “
We have also seen this stunning shift in reporting from the Guardian dated September 10:
“Azov fighters are Ukraine’s greatest weapon and may be its greatest threat: The battalion’s far-right volunteers’ desire to ‘bring the fight to Kiev’ is a danger to post-conflict stability”
Critical attention should be paid here to the second part of this headline as it mirrors numerous threats made by Yarosh should they view that Poroshenko is mismanaging the ATO or that lustration processes are not carried out sufficiently.
Also we saw stunningly from CNN this one, who until recently pretended that ATO operations were clean and only targeted ‘terrorist rebels’. This article focuses on the misery brought to Donetsk and Lugansk residents from KJ shelling, even sympathetically quoting several residents in their plea to Poroshenko to cease the activities. dated September 2
“Misery in Ukraine as deadly conflict drives civilians from homes”
The New York Times also has flipped the script in at first an apparently muted fashion, but reading into the article dated an early August 9, we find near the bottom and important element of this hypothetical strategy,
“Officials in Kiev say the militias and the army coordinate their actions, but the militias, which count about 7,000 fighters, are angry and, at times, uncontrollable. One known as Azov, which took over the village of Marinka, flies a neo-Nazi symbol resembling a Swastika as its flag.
In pressing their advance, the fighters took their orders from a local army commander, rather than from Kiev. In the video of the attack, no restraint was evident.”
“Ukraine Strategy Bets on Restraint by Russia “
Also note in the above headline the espousing of a Russia acting with restraint.
Also a little ahead of the script, then would be the Telegraph article, dated August 11,
“Ukraine crisis: the neo-Nazi brigade fighting pro-Russian separatists”
The Irish Times, testing the waters, reports on July 17th
“Foreigners join far-right militias in Ukraine’s fight against rebels – Fears that nationalist Azov Battalion and others could ultimately turn on new rulers”
Russia and NATO Already Agree: Poroshenko is a ”Moderate”
The line about Poroshenko being a moderate remains, but once out of power it is only lamenting that he will receive from the US. The US will be nominally committed to restoring Poroshenko, and will use this as the legal basis for their increased bellicosity in the region, but in actual fact will support Pravy Sektor economically and militarily in order to ensure that the fight continues on, destroying infrastructure and creating a lasting social psychology of distrust and never-ending warlordism (as done in El Salvador, Nicaragua, Libya, etc.).
This was exactly what was done in Afghanistan when the US funded four factions with varying degrees of mutual hostility, simultaneously: The Taliban (supposedly Al Qaeda/MAK), the Northern Alliance, the Kabul Government, and its own US forces on the ground.
At the same time Russia will have a hard time, unless they pull back out Yanukovich or some other well executed meme, disagreeing on that point. Russia did after all recognize the legitimacy of the May elections in Kiev, even though they were illegal under Ukrainian law.
Keep in mind that the Pravy Sektor coup will involve more than several Odessa type massacres, more photos of cut heads and burnt bodies. The victims won’t just be ethnic Russians in the east, but even liberal left and liberal right pro-EU Ukrainians who, numerically speaking, together were the majority of the original Euro-Majdan protesters back in November of 2013. This is sure to get the R2P cogs turning within both the European and US discourse (the so-called International Community)
If Russians are behind in the information war game in speaking out on their behalf (though we doubt they will be), it will be even easier for the NATO propaganda machine to claim the moral high ground – NATO through its EU proxies in civil society will claim to represent not only the ‘human rights’ interests of ethnic Russians in the east, but Ukrainians in the center and west of the former Ukraine.
Those who are conflicted by their partiality towards Novorossiya and dislike for Putin will be among the easiest to pull towards the pro-European intervention line in opposition to the Pravy Sektor Junta. They will reason that since Putin let this happen, and this is Putin’s fault, then we have no choice but to support the R2P initiative of ‘Human Rights’ oriented European states to intervene to ‘save lives’.
Citizens with Wechsler Classification IQ’s of between 90 to 109 who follow the mainstream media, and those with IQ’s of 110 to 119 who follow the controlled ‘alternative’ media will be susceptible to the promoted simulacrum, their lives and existences having hitherto prepared them to follow the proposed logic combined with emotional appeal. Because this is the vast majority of people who follow news about world events, the pull will be quite significant.
US is Making Poroshenko Lose
On the Military Front: Following the logic of this scenario, we are led to another critical question. Something which should be critically examined is what appears to be the unnecessary losses taken by the Ukrainian side. The US has only given to the Poroshenko led KJ forces a relatively minimal amount of support; primarily they have relied on their own resources, and have been helped with replacement tanks and supplies from neighboring NATO countries, but also with basically outdated (even if well maintained) equipment and heavy weapons. While it is true that Ukraine has burned through about 110 to 130% of the air-force which they started with (meaning they’ve imported some), one would realize that if the US were really committed we would have seen a multi-billion dollar package including the leasing, lending, or sale of numerous advanced craft, able to carry out many hundreds of more sorties.
It had been sufficient to place significant pressure on the then NM’s who in turn were being supported by an increasing Russian trickle on the official level of operational, tactical, and then later more tangible material support going into August.
But to explain the classic tactical encirclement maneuvers used against KJ forces also means that the KJ was not being provided with US aerial and satellite intelligence which would have enabled them to avoid being foiled and routed for a consecutively running number of weeks hitherto.
If the US plan is to use the ‘Pravy Sektor’ as Al Qaeda/ISIS stratagem, then the erosion of Poroshenko’s support will continue in this scenario. This last week, he’s blitzed the ‘liberated’ areas, giving talks about having ‘Won the Peace’. Now he’s in the situation of trying to compromise the vision of two increasingly divergent groups who were responsible for his rise to ‘power’: regular order-loving Europhile/Russophobe Ukrainian liberals, and Pravy Sektor and Svoboda ultra right misanthropes and war aestheticists/romanticizers.
The battles that US war planners, who in effect control much of the operations already, have pushed onto the KJ forces are suspect in their costliness. Even when they believed they were ‘pushing back the NM forces’ (in reality, just marching to the actual front), their supplies were limited and units were left with poor coordination and communication. They would be told to hold positions that were liable to be hit, and were hit, and did not receive orders to change positions. A combination of these, and more, led to an eventual condition of distrust towards Poroshenko’s Kiev government. Meanwhile, the Pravy Sektor groups have used their being placed inside of larger units to propagandize among the regular conscripted men.
On the Economic Front: While the US has its own serious structural economic problems, it is still in the position to deliver significant military aid from its stockpiles, and is also able to print money. If one considers that QE1 alone was actually a series of three $700 billion dollar bailouts, followed by QE2, and if one also considers the enormous black budget which the US has for special military plans and related, one could see that ‘money exists’ to really arm and equip the KJ, and yet it does not. These are not economic issues, but ones of priority. This would seem to point to a thesis that the US is making Poroshenko lose. But what of Kiev’s own ability to create value on the economic front?
The Economic Front US policy has caused an ongoing near-collapse of the Ukrainian economic ‘system’. With the value of the Hryvnia having dropped below 15 to the dollar, inflation has seriously affected buying power, creating the roots of mass social unrest, and this has been coupled with a stagflationary decline in production without any of the substantive increase in exports that one would expect with such a drop in value.
Ukraine’s productive industries have all been hit beyond near-term repair or fixing. Some are leaving the country.
*Kherson Shipyard which was a leading ship producer is going bankrupt.
*Iron and Steel industry at standstill
*Zaporozhye automotive has announced a cut-back in production and lay-offs.
*Kremenchug car assembly plant is moving to Kazakhstan.
*Aircraft engine producer Motor-Sich is relocating to Russia.
* Mining industry not running
On top of this is a $15+ billion IMF debt which will be impossible to pay back – the framework of the loan was based around having these industries, and of course having the Donbass region and perhaps as well the Crimea. The mining industry in Donbass was producing a significant portion of the coal that powered industry. Even if alternative sources can be used, Ukraine is facing a major energy deficit with its supplies of Russian gas in serious question.
All of these are making the present Ukrainian government the most reviled in its history. There is only so much that can be done to blame Russia for things, as we have seen in the Arab Spring, the value of a removed responsible party can only go so far. Arab leaders attempted to explain that they did not control the price of bread in international markets, but bread riots and protests erupted nonetheless. While Blythe Masters was the individual charged with putting together the plan to shift the QE1 bailout into cornering the global perishable goods market, people took their protests not to the US embassy (at first) but to their own governments. Only in the case of Syria was the government able to stay in power. Ultimately people need somewhere they can go petition, protest, and make change. This will be the Ukrainian government’s undoing, and will set the stage for the Pravy Sektor seize of power as this US written script unfolds.
A Brief Description of the Execution
Chapter 1. In short, the US will covertly support a Euromajdan redux, but this time coupled perhaps with better organized armed march spectacle on Kiev or similar, reminiscent of Mussolini’s famous simulacrum March on Rome. Like in Rome, it will have the appearance of a radical change but in fact will be supported by numerous sections of the Ukrainian elite who will be taken along on a journey which, objectively, is likely to be outside of the scope of their long-term self interests. The US will employ both bribery and the immediate self-interest mechanism for some, and the use of false marketing (e.g. Intermarium) for others.
Yarosh, Lyasko Oleg, or similar will be charged with gathering all forces to make the spectacle of a putsch. Kolomoisky’s forces and others would join. They would, in this scenario, order back from the front these soldiers for the tactic, and collectively pressure Poroshenko and almost the entire Verkhovna Rada to step down. Yarosh has already threatened such on numerous occasions, but has carefully mitigated his speech in referring to ‘reforms’ within the legality of the Rada as the end game of such a March on Kiev. Naturally this time it would be quite different.
With these Pravy Sektor and Svoboda related battalions, as with others, their morale is presently very low; most accounts and reports from field indicate that they blame the Ukrainian government for corruption, inefficiency, and false promises such as failing to deliver needed materials, support systems, even correct artillery and basic food rations. Looting and pillaging have become a commonplace method of last resort, as well as quartering themselves in the homes of the over half million people who have fled. Pravy Sektor activist groups and football clubs still in Kiev, Lviv and surrounding country, towns and villages, will also be filed in by bus to join in. This time armed with firearms instead of bats, clubs, and chains, the simulacrum of an organic and native putsch will be projected over a very foreign high level US military intelligence operation complete with well orchestrated arrests, detentions, assassinations and the like.
The US will covertly overthrow Poroshenko and install the Pravy Sektor, but create an alternate hyperreality to denounce this and have surrealistic ‘grave concerns’ over those developments. Covertly the US will likely attempt an arrest, socio-political marginalization, or assassination of nearly the entire Ukrainian political and military establishment, as their attempts to root out individual agents of the FSB have to date been more or less unfruitful. The marginalization of the Party of Regions, and the banning of the Communist party in this regard have only a symbolic meaning, as actual pro-Russian agents had from the start been members not only of the Russophobic Ukrainian establishment but also Svoboda party and movement itself.
Notably was the former head of the Ukrainian Military Command and prior Navy, General Ihor Tenyukh, who was forced to resign after giving stand-down orders when legally stationed Russian naval personnel extended their sphere of operations to encompass the whole of Crimea following the now famous referendum. This is just one example of the extent to which the FSB had penetrated the entire Ukrainian establishment from many sides.
From this we can ascertain that that even this ‘Pravy Sektor’ government will contain much less of the original cast and crew that saw in the original show’s series. NATO can trust no-one here. Only US, English, Australian, and Israeli advisers; only Mossad, M16, CIA and FBI. No Ukrainians at any level of authority. It will be mostly fresh faces parading with the Pravy Sektor title. To deal with language barriers and for the building of trusted chains of command, militarized Mossad operatives and Israeli mercenaries fluent in Ukrainian, Polish, and/or Russian will be used to fill in the gaps created by the ousting of the FSB infiltrated old Ukrainian apparatchiks.
Just like ISIS, from Al Nusra, from Al Qaeda, from Maktab al-Khidamat, it may go through some rebranding which accompanies the introduction of new directors, producers, and actors. This means we might expect something like a ‘Night of Long Knives’ tactic to be used at least once or twice.
This first part accomplishes the US goal of ultimately confusing the issue, changing the entire discourse, and implementing what is really the third stage of creating a failed state. How is this the actually the third stage? That requires seeing the pattern from the specifics.
The General Strategy – Template Used in All Cases
1.) Color Revolution protest-to-power Tactic combined with,
2.) Arab Spring uprising with US backed militias and civil war, install ‘democracy’,
3.) A transition from nominally stable ‘pro-western’ government into a failed state ruled by extremist ideological warlords,
Chapter 2. Here we have arrived at the total end of the Ukrainian state. Part 3.) of the General Strategy is entirely realized.
The Pravy Sektor are established as the “National-Socialist” Uniate Church “Wahhabis”. The media, as we explored in the section above, is already committed to exposing their war-crimes. If Russian and Novorossiyan efforts to stop them are successful in the east, there will be more in the west. If rank and file Pravy Sektor are unwilling to do this, the US will resort to the special employment of a combination of torture-loving misanthropes and an occasional hoax.
Also, we must recall that on the Novorossiyan side, there are also people the west can reasonably call ‘far-right extremists’, such as the Varyag Battalion, RNU, and Nazbol connected brigades. This will be used to add additional confusion to the issue, as the western liberal mind suffers from both a tendency to equivocate or fall for the equivocation of others, and to abuse or be abused by broad categories lacking in nuance. Thus the Europeans supporting Poroshenko, and not the Russians supporting the Novorossiyans, will be able to present themselves to their own audience as the neutral arbiters.
The Pravy Sektor will have the job of destroying all remnants of civil society and shatter the illusion of the pluralism which the middling classes find comfort in, and will secure the important areas of resource extraction for western banking and industrial conglomerates. As Monsanto has an interest in soil-rich parts of eastern Ukraine, and as they are also strongly connected to the Academi mercenary firm, we can expect to see Anglophonic world, Polish, and Baltic state mercenaries involved in securing similar areas.
Naturally in discussing the coup tactic, with a view towards the failed state strategy, comes the issue of US investments, fracking, energy, telecom, etc. being enjoyed by friends, relatives, and colleagues of the US political establishment. Like in Iraq, small areas of control will the the desired outcome, backed by private armed groups will oversee the security of these places, especially where natural and raw resource extraction will take place. If public information or journalism reveals this scenario, those armed groups will be deemed ‘moderates.
But the US also uses the spectacle of US investment to confuse their real aims: investment seems in many minds to be connected to development and conditions of prosperity, wrongly associated with ‘peace’. Because the marketing and the product often diverge in these scenarios, it is likely, as before with the original coup, that numerous elements of the Ukrainian elite will act in line with US expectations even if in reality their own fortunes will ultimately be destroyed.
Quite importantly in this phase the Pravy Sektor will be able to accomplish several tasks with one important blow: they will sabotage and destroy the gas pipeline. This will accomplish the US goal of eliminating roughly 65% of the capacity of Russian gas into Europe (Nord-Stream delivers the balance), as part of their plan to destroy Europe and Russia economic integration. It also ends no small amount of the leverage which Russia has on both Europe and Ukraine to resolve this matter in a way which protects Russian sovereignty and national interest. Also it is a pseudo-paradigm shifting act. How so?
The Pravy Sektor ideology is not only based in Nazi aesthetics but in Fascist asceticism. They believe this will purify their people and rid them of the materialist, western, consumerist disease of modernism and capitalism. They think the people will grow stronger by having less; they will grow closer by having their enemies farther from them. They know that people will have only each other keep each other warm. There will be a return to cottage industry. Candles will illuminate the home at night. It will be a general return to the 13th century. In this sense as well, they are nearly identical to Wahhabis.
There are many elements of truth to their critique of capitalist and consumerist western civilization, and moreover there is no reason to think, in the abstract, that their solutions might not be required given their desired goal. But in a similar way to how some of the finer points of Islam are used by Wahhabism to the benefit of US and Zionist regional hegemony, in turn it is the very same consumerist and materialist west which is manipulating this false simulacrum war against the modern world in order to perpetuate the actual-reality of the modern world, indefinitely.
These are not contradictions whose understanding comes easily, because the world of man as it is created is not naturalistic, but constructed. Thus in understanding the strategies of states and supra-national powers, we must understand that it is an intentionally constructed maze which not only meanders but leads to dead ends and traps. Radical promises of liberation and paradigm shifts are often the opposite.
What will ultimately happen prior to any foreign intervention, is that these various Pravy Sektor groups will break down into various competing groups of warlords who use ideology as the main organizing principle holding their warband together. They will take all of Ukrainians with them in the descent into post-apocalyptic madness.
Regional War, Total War – Problems and Solutions
The Pravy Sektor Junta can do all sorts of things to expand the scope of the war. This can include attacks on Polish border guards and more, even raids deep into Polish territory. On a given day that NATO is having most of the Polish army performing an anti-Russian drill near the Baltic Sea, Pravy Sektor can ‘storm’ into Poland and steal numerous tanks and aircraft from an unprotected military base. Those who question the timing or possibility of such an attack without sufficient Polish response will be easily dismissed as conspiracy theorists. Of course this attack would be virtual, not real, and would only be used to explain away the fact that Pravy Sektor was being suddenly and mysteriously armed. We might see a large caravan of them in Toyota trucks, perhaps.
Poland may in fact be key to expanding the war into a broader regional war, and could draw in Latvia and Lithuania. Pravy Sektor attacks on Poland would give Poland a legal right to attack Ukraine. The problem of course being that the US goal is to destroy Ukraine, but not just once – to keep the fighting ongoing so that reconstruction and redevelopment cannot occur. At a certain point it may force the Russians into a situation of defensive forward occupation of the Baltic, deepening the scope of the conflict and invoking NATO’s mutual defense clauses.
Moving towards regional and total war, there are number of other serious standing issues which the US may be able to solve by using the Al Qaeda/ISIS strategy
1.) Problem: EU-Atlanticists (primarily banking) and EU-Eurasianists (primarily industrialists and retailers) are splitting over Ukraine. There are also known fence sitters. Among known fence sitters are those pretending to be such. Among EU-A’s and EU-E’s are also those pretending that they are each other. This is a problematic mess for the US. It is difficult to tell whom is leading the other. There is a Russian strategy at play of bringing fence sitters over to the side of the EU-E’s in order to create further pressure in that discourse favoring the Russian position.
Solution: Post-coup, the US will organize for the EU-A fence sitters to to ‘see the light’ and lead that EU-A’s go over to the side of the EU-E’s to basically support Russia ‘in words’ against Pravy Sektor Junta. That will solve through confusion for some time the issue of the EU-E’s and the EU-A’s. They will all seem to be on the same side of the Ukraine conflict – Remove the Pravy Sektor Junta.
This will create the simulacrum of unanimity on the issue of Ukraine. NATO, the EU and Russia will all be in the position of roundly condemning the ‘Fascist takeover’ of Ukraine. Once this goes into effect, the talking points and public dissemination will be impossible to untangle. It is impossible to be against Nazis for the wrong reasons, in western thinking.
2.) Problem: The Russian propaganda angle has increasingly taken hold in western Europe; while the actual uprising of the Donbass people is only secondarily ideological, and at that it is a mix of Ultra-nationalism, religious Orthodoxy, Soviet Nostalgia, Eurasianism, Communism, Russian irredentism, and National Bolshevim, is lost upon much of the sympathetic Western European audience. They believe that this is a battle of Russian Leftists against NATO backed Rightist Nazis. There are strong elements of truth to this, but it is far from the whole truth. At any rate, they have, using bottom up politics, helped to shift the public discourse in the direction of Novorossiya
Solution: Western press continue to expose the ‘nazi’ nature of the KJ, now led by Pravy Sektor, but also expose the Ultra-nationalists, religious Orthodox, Eurasianists, irredentists, and Nazbols as equivalent in both moral abstraction and activity to the KJ nazis. Since they are all nazis, it doesn’t matter if some NATO actions against the west nazis accidentally strike the east nazis.
3.) Problem: Euro-skepticism has never been bigger in Europe, and the ideas of the far-right and far-left are becoming more popular as polar extremes against the bourgeois center. Leftists are realizing they’ve lost more than their surplus value in the process of capitalist development, and long for a simpler bygone era where kin was kin, but combined with some of the luxuries of modern technology, but none of the war and imperialism that plagued the 20th century. They’ve made some intersections with the far right. The far right are realizing that they need a real anti-globalist economic model in order to preserve their culture, nationality or race, and heritage, and that this economic model looks a lot more like socialism than capitalism. They are also seeing that choosing to live among one’s own kind is not the same as being a supremacist towards others. In essence, the bourgeois in Europe can see which way the wind is blowing, and they need to reverse that flow.
Solution: Force the right and the left back into stupid and malleable roles: As an intended side effect, fake-far right Europeans will once against become ‘white-supremacist’ groups, and will also grow as both a direct and indirect product of this Pravy Sektor example, producing a greater number of neo-nazi jihadis both going into Ukraine, and within their own European countries to clash more violently with Islamists and then Leftists in Europe. The European clash will incidentally make it very difficult for critics to say that the US is supporting both the Islamists and the neo-nazis from essentially the same game-book if they are apparently fighting each other. This fits in precisely with the 4GW doctrine of blurring the lines between civilians and combatants.
It will also bring to the forefront the divide and conquer strategy of the ‘Clash of Civilizations’ promoted by the US Neo-Cons in the last decade. The European clash will coincide with economic woes in general, due to the trillion euros plus hit to the economy which sanctions on Russia are projected to take. Rather than a needed class struggle with strong elements of a pan-European and anti-materialist cultural renewal project, it will pit Muslim migrants against native Europeans; problematically ignoring a fight against those on top who both created the economic problems and opened the doors to a flood of culturally incompatible migrants.
Fake-far left European ‘guilt-ridden white-supremacist’ groups will trip over their own Russophobia, and believe that only they, the holders of liberal civilization and pluralism, are in the moral-ethical position to act on behalf of Ukrainians and ethnic Russians. They will support NATO action in Ukraine in the name of human rights. It really is a no-brainer, because ”Nazi” means ”human rights violator”.
4.) Problem: Russia has leverage over Ukraine and Europe with its gas pipelines. Ukraine needs the gas to fuel industry and to heat the homes of people.
Solution: Exterminate or ethnically cleanse more of the eastern half of the population. Blow up the gas pipelines and revert to an agrarian sustenance based economy mirroring the 13th century. Wealthy Ukrainians in Kiev have foreign goods shipped in for their use at a significant cost. The rest move to Switzerland or London. Prostitution, drugs, and gambling become the main stay of normal life.
5.) Problem: The FSB is entirely infiltrated in many crevices of the Ukrainian high command, all the way to the field. This is another reason why the US cannot give the KJ too much – whatever they give, can go over to the other side. They cannot give the KJ access to their satellites and aerial ground imaging, because then the Russians would see exactly what the US and KJ sees.
Solution: The coup takes out everyone. All are replaced by Israeli and US military leadership and intelligence. Mercenaries as well play an increased role.
Russian Awareness and Counter-Measures
Russia would of course be aware that there is a growing chance of this happening in any event, but a greater chance if things escalate the wrong way. This may help to explain other reasons why Russia has essentially helped build the credibility of Poroshenko, going back to the May elections. It also explains why it wants to control the escalation in a certain way which give Poroshenko numerous face saving opportunities and ways to remain in office in the face of growing internal opposition. If Russia sees the coming coup as an eventuality, then its present tactics are part of a strategy of a.) preventing a coup or b.) forcing a delayed realization of the coup tactic.
For further reading on the subject of the coup tactic which is often a requirement at the under-graduate level in our field, it is recommended to familiarize oneself with at least one of the three following titles:
Confessions of an Economic Hit Man, John Perkins , 2004
Coup d’État: A Practical Handbook, by Edward Luttwak, 1979
The Coup: Tactics in the Seizure of Power, Bruce W. Farcau, 1994
That Strelkov is known for having irredentist views, and Gubarev is known for having led the ostensibly neo-nazi RNU group of ethnic-Russians in Donbass, may have been a factor in their removal within this hypothetical, as the Russians prepare for an intensification of the media war, attempting to avoid one of the problems listed in Chapter 2 in the Execution section above. It is true that the new faces we have seen do not have questionable pasts, and speak more clearly about ‘social justice’ and ‘liberation of our people’.
Our scenario also means that Russia does not want to see Poroshenko go, until conditions arise for his replacement along Russian terms. An alternate route is for Poroshenko to switch sides, as he is without exception a US puppet. This would be the ‘Yanukovichization of Poroshenko’. This would be dificult, but what Russia needs of course is a pro-Russia government in Kiev.
For this to work with Poroshenko, they must accurately assess his motives. If he has been bitten by the ‘state power bug’, then they have a better shot with him in the event that they can demonstratively show that the US wants him out and Pravy Sektor in.
So its possible then that Russia can also be managing this already with Poroshenko. This would include the sending of Pravy Sektor battalions into bad situations, promising them reinforcements and heavy artillery and tanks, and then supplying none, only realized after its too late, after they are surrounded and destroyed.
With their own military and information war initiative, the Russians would seem at first to be in a very tight spot. There would be a lack of clear messaging which would allow Russia to act on behalf of the people of a foreign country, but not NATO. Poland borders Ukraine as much as Russia does. Additionally, a pro-US Poroshenko – as the universally recognized legitimate leader of Ukraine – would have the authority to beg European countries to intervene to restore civilian government. If the Russians can persuade him first, then he might invite the Russians; this much could be key.
While seemingly tight at first, this is not without precedent. In 1999, Putin comes to power and his first major international move was in defense of Yugoslavia, on the Serbian side. He did so as ostensibly a US ally, and claimed a united Russia-US interest, but in actual fact frustrated the US effort in ways which have only become realizable to us in a more full form over the last three or four years.
In this case, with or without Poroshenko’s blessing, because Russia will again be within the role play of being a US or EU ally against the Pravy Sektor, Russia suddenly scrambles its forces for a blitz occupation of Kiev, treats all Pravy Sektor people as suspects in a police action, and declares the whole thing over, with elections to take place in four months.
However, this is a best case scenario, and all situations which would tend to increase the number of players, increase, the hostilities, also increases the variables and the introduction of unknowns, making the real situation increasingly volatile and threatening to the future existence of human life.
Fourth Generation Warfare involves dissemblance and memetic warfare, manipulation of mass-publics as well as target elite’s very understanding of reality itself. Being able to understand the simulacrum created in the pursuing of this kind of warfare requires a multidisciplinary approach involving a number of both hard sciences and social sciences. The generalist will have a broader view than the specialist, and must excel over the specialist in a number of key areas which the most critical specialists are oriented in. The quality of analysis will reflect the development of the general-as-specialist in a given area of expertise.
Strategy is not a naturally occurring phenomenon, and military matters defy the economics of efficiency and simplicity. They also require explanations entirely opposite from the Occam’s razor used to explain phenomenon in the natural sciences. Instead, replication, redundancy and complication of physical strategic points as well as complexity of plans are required, rather than avoided.
The US is presently using a very similar strategy in Syria and Iraq to what is described here. This itself is evidence that the US has 1.) the inclination to use such a strategy 2.) experience using this strategy. 3.) success using this strategy. and 4.) given how we’ve contextualized the present US dilemma, a possible need to use this strategy.
Taken all together, it is incumbent upon us to examine in greater detail the possibility of the use of this strategy and begin to publicly expose it and inoculate mass publics to its potential use in Ukraine, as it threatens to expand the way and usher in an unmanageable increase in this period of instability and constant war.
Awesome perspective, thanks for sharing
You’re welcome, thank you.
Poroshenko is about to suffer the treachery fated to befall anyone who imagines the US can be trusted.
You’re right, of course.
I also noticed that the narrative has been subtly changing in the western mainstream press. I originally thought it was just damage control vis-a-vis the Russian media, but then again this is directed at the sheep who are not cognizant of the alternative media.
By the way, I just read that Pravy Sektor has thrown a minister in a trash bin and is now breaking into the Rada. You should consider changing your name to Nostradamus!
I’m trying to understand the ‘media blockade’ on me in the alternative media. Many others have now said that on this site there has been much analysis which more or less accurately this whole matter going back to February. I think I come off as ‘younger’ than I really am (I’m nearing 40) and I also talk about things in a way which aren’t consistent with sound-byte, drive-by, headline driven media. Furthermore, I’ve spoken honestly and openly about Russian involvement 6 months before it was politically correct to do so (when what I was saying could easily be confused for Ukraine/US propaganda).
This article I’ve tried to title in such a way which grabs some attention without falsely representing the mechanisms I’m trying to explain. We’ll see what happens!
As you mentioned previously, many of the larger `”alternative” media sources are co-opted. The Russian media seems to be playing a carefully crafted chess game, and I don’t know if your honest assessment would fit into their agenda at this point. I recommend you contact Henrik at Red Ice Radio. That is probably the biggest true alternative radio show, and I think your analysis would be a good fit. Anyhow, I think the word is spreading and you are gaining more and more “street cred” Joaquin.
Excellent intricate analysis on many fronts. By its nature it is predictive and speculative. The importance is in having it out there and dated, to compare with unfolding events. It is difficult to get advance credibility until future events bear out the prediction. Nevertheless, your analysis indicates the multi-layered nature of what is going on. For wider distribution, that is perhaps part of the “popularity problem”. In depth analysis is far beyond both MSM and alt-M. The attentive public is also sound-byte drive, so the outlets must cater to that.
Compartmentalizing of big picture into more digestible, separate click through topics, like chapters in a book, particularly on FB might be a better strategy, with digestible headlines:
IS PRAVIY SEKTOR UKRAINE’S ISIS?
KIEV VERSUS THE OBLASTS: CAN POROSHENKO KEEP CONTROL?
BACK OFF RUSSIA – MONSANTO, POLAND, LITHUANIA WANT THEIR PIECE OF UKRAINE, TOO
FUTURE UKRAINE: THE MAP
FAILED STATE: HOW WILL UKRAINE SURVIVE, AND WHAT WILL IT LOOK LIKE?
POROSHENKO: WILL US STAGE ANOTHER MAIDAN TO TOPPLE HIM ?(notice ‘another” – ok it’s a little propagandistic))
WILL POROSHENKO SWITCH SIDES?
4GW: IS ETHNIC CLEANSING NOW LEGITIMATE WAR TACTIC?
PROPAGANDA – THE WAR THAT REALLY MATTERS
PROPAGANDA – WHAT YOU SEE IS NOT WHAT YOU GET etc. etc.
WHAT’S REALLY GOING ON? YOU CAN’T HANDLE THE TRUTH. EVERYTHING is propaganda!
Publishing the collection, as an ongoing, updatable Ebook, which you can offer free or by minimal subscription is another option. That gets you on the record, in multiple platforms.
Offering your speaking services to affinity groups and universities adds to your professional resume. Linked In presence as speaker.
Perceived youth has little to do with it. You are dealing with news readers. Grabbing attention requires attention grabbing headlines and appropriate graphics. Friending relevant, sophisticated strategic THINKERS, not just program hosts and employing Twitter to post tiny urls to them on each new blog.( Jim Rickards, Zero Hedge, for example)
Just break the topics down into 3 minute reads or 8 minute videos, with click thru’s for more detail. It all uses the same research and data in different formats. Remember to caption the videos, so they can be translated into multiple languages. Then headline them in relevant languages.
Thank you for the insightful analysis. I would love to see a bigger picture analysis that includes events/activities in the in Middle East and Asia.
Thank you for your supportive words Xyclops. I am not a mid-east expert but over all I am a generalist who can deliver ‘bigger picture’ analysis of events in other places such as the Middle-East. My areas of specialized knowledge are in Latin America and the Slavic world.
However, on Syria, I have delivered public presentations on panels, including with Serbian General Delic, who is also a former Parliamentary Vice President. This is here on this site, if you dig back to last year, if you search in the bar below the donation box for ‘Syria’.
Also I have given a presentation to the Syrian Embassy, following the re-election of Assad, to the Ambassador and his staff as to why the victory in Syria will never be recognized in western press, but that it is real nonetheless.
The subject of Syria has also made its way into one or two interviews I have done, and can be found here on this site.
Also on youtube on the channel of Morris108 you will find a playlist just of me, and in there are a few videos on the subject of Syria, I believe.
Three years ago I would never have believed any of this, preferring to chalk up everything to neocon ‘blundering’. But after having seen all this go down in the ME since then, I think Flores could very well be on to something here.
A though just occurred to me, Joaquin: if Pravy Sektor overthrows Poroshenko and Russia comes to his rescue, might the west not try and blame the Russians for Pravy Sektor? In effect, accusing THEM of a false-flag operation to win back Ukraine? It may sound far-fetched, but using the Syrian situation as a template, I do remember some pro-western sources contending that the Syrian government was secretly using ISIS in order to weaken the ‘moderate’ terrorists in Syria. It was absurd, of course. But some people did seem to warm to that theory.
Yes, in fact this meme was spread early on (blaming Russia for Pravy Sektor, or at least attributing their worst atrocities to being Russian false flags).
We know this is false because Russia’s aim over-all has been to minimize both the fighting and the media spectacle discourse on this matter. They do not benefit from media hyperventilation on any subject, as the Atlanticist controlled west will eventually use that as a pretext to attempt a self-serving intervention.
In general, your sense is in the right direction. The ‘playbook’ I described in the article is only one of several possible, and that is of course within the hypothesis that they will take all of this in that direction (I suspect more today than when I wrote this that, indeed, they will). Events have unfolded no less than 24 hours from my publishing of this article which seem to really underscore the real possibility of the ‘Pravy Sektor as ISIS’ strategy by the Atlanticists.
this was the most informative article that i have read on the situation to date. i am from america but i am very anti nationalist. all the anti us rhetoric in your article stands in severe contrast to the meticulous depth of the rest of your presentation. it is very broad-brushed. most people in america would agree that yes we are here in america but we have little, if any, control over the moguls who run the show. you would do better to refer to them than you would to refer to the u.s. more so if you referred to them in ways that would show empathy which you may have for u.s. citizens who are under the yoke of these aloof puppet masters. it may take an extra line or two to make the point each time you mention u.s. involvement but it would go a lot further to making peace in the world. also, i have suspected from the beginning that nato and russia have been working together playing good-cop/bad-cop to expose the nazi element of ukraine. with the facts which you have presented here, could not this case be made as well? i first suspected this collusive activity with snowden going into “exile”. everyone has known for over a decade that they are collecting metadata so i don’t consider him to be a whistle blower, nor any of the others for that matter. i figure that, for one, this give the illusion to iran and others that they have at least one european “enemy of my enemy” to work with, namely russia and this will help to reign them into the modern world. thoughts?
Glad you like the analysis. Please cite an example of anti-US rhetoric as opposed to analysis which point to what the US is actually doing – given an example of this ‘stark contrast’. What is in fact absent from our analysis is much in the way of rhetoric at all.
It may make you uncomfortable to read about things your government is doing. In geopolitical and geostrategic writing, it is both unnecessary but more over entirely out-of-school to make special provisos delineating what the US government, military industrial complex and banking sector (together – the elite) are doing ‘vs.’ what polling suggests the people want.
That is only germane when the subject relates to that difference. An example would be talking about protest movements in the US, or the need for change. In fact we wrote a piece specifically about that, which you can see here:
In fact in all of our feedback, and in the tens of thousands of views we have received on each piece, we have never had a person confuse that we were talking of American people when we use the neutral and descriptive term for the US government and elites as ‘the US’. In referring to US people, we would say ‘American people’.
In speaking of ‘The Russians’, we mean the Russian elite, not ever babushka on her way to church; in speaking of the Japanese we mean the Japanese elite not every grass-eater in cozplay; in speaking of the Jews or Zionists, we mean the Jewish/Zionist elite. In speaking of the Venezuelans we are ….. right, you get it 🙂
It is not about anyone’s feelings.
US and Russia are, to clarify, not playing a game together. They are on opposed ends on this one. The Russians have tried to expose the real nature of the Pravy Sektor, when the US did not. The evolving strategy was for the US only later to ‘expose this’ in order to build up the framework for being able to distance themselves from the very program, replete with atrocities, that they are actually funding. That is the central thesis of my piece here. It also, as we have been careful to state as a hypothesis, the goal of the US will be to try to build up for some type of R2P intervention, and/or to provoke Poland into ‘legitimately’ defending its national interest; leading to a broader intra-regional war.
Glad to have you with us! Check out our past articles, some of the pieces may fit better together.
If the US is really contemplating this scenario they are really playing with fire. This is not the middle east nor Latin America. This is in Russia’s hood and Russia will do all that is necessary to either prevent the Pravy Sector from a coup or if there’s a coup intervene directly. I understand that Russia has to finesse every step of the way but that can only go so far. Having a fascist coup take place with the US as the instigator would be the last straw for Russia. They would have to massively intervene. Actually, in my opinion, having a fascist coup would greatly simplify everything for Russia. If your scenario takes place with even the western press exposing the nature of the Pravy Sector then I think Russia would have justification to send the forces in because they’re on the same page with the west. How could the US now attack Russia for this. Russia has their own R2P and they could say they are going in to protect democracy and to protect Russia which is their neighbor. Basically once a fascist coup takes place it would be a race to which country can intervene first and massively into Kiev, US-Nato or Russia. I guarantee you Russia is the only country that has the forces to massively intervene on a moment’s notice in that area. They would have logistical support from their allies in the Ukrainian army. The US wouldn’t know what hit them. If Russia doesn’t do anything and allows the US scenario to take place where they send in Israelis, etc. then Russia’s a fool. But Russia is not a fool and they will intervene, I guarantee it. Remember how fast Russia sent in troops to South Ossetia. Remember how fast Russia got back Crimea. Remember how fast Russian troops landed at Pristina airport in Kosovo in 1999 and totally shocked Nato. And don’t forget Pristina is a much longer trip than Kiev for Russia. I think trying to finesse Poroshenko and trying to figure out where he stands is much more complex for Russia than a straight out and out fascist coup.
In the end western public opinion doesn’t count for much in the eyes of Russia. Russia’s gotta do what they gotta do. Public opinion is fickle anyways. So what if public opinion in the west didn’t like Russia going into South Ossettia or taking Crimea. Hell even Russia got flack over it from some anchors at RT. So what. Big deal. Russia will do what it takes for their security even if the alternative media give them hell for it. So let’s not make a big deal about mainstream alternative media or alternative media. Everything will sort out just nicely in the end if Russia does the right thing.
Regarding the 1999 Serbian war I think Joaquin that you’re wrong about Putin in power. I recall that Yeltsin was still Russian president during all of 1999 and that Putin came in right after New Year 2000 unless you’re saying that Putin was the real power behind the throne while Yeltsin was drunk in the back room.
Regarding Serbia in 1999, real power change began when the FSB re-emerged as the successor to the KGB in 1995 and re-organized as a ruse pulled under Yeltsin and CIA noses; and Putin assumed the role of head of the FSB in 1998, posing as a friend of Oligarchs and a pro-Atlanticist. See my piece on Putin The Last Man Standing.
Then he became a permanent member of the Security Council of the Russian Federation on 1 October 1998 (that means untouchable) and its Secretary on 29 March 1999.
He was already running the deep state from then on, and making important decisions including Serbia while, as you correctly point out, Yeltsin was drunk in the back room.
He actually fully assumed official powers as Prime Minister in August 1999, just a few months after his first official foreign success in thwarting the US.
His Presidency did begin in December 1999, but officially in 2000. But as you’ve seen with Medvedev, it doesn’t matter what the position is, it matters where Putin is.
If Putin is head of the FSB, the FSB is most important. If Putin is the President, then the President has the real power. If Putin is the Prime Minister, then the Prime Minister has the real power.
That explains what happened. So you can say that Russia began the move to repair the Gorbachev-Yeltsin damage even before Putin officially became head of state on new year 2000. It actually started in 1995. Very interesting. One day we’ll have to get the complete historical account written by worthy scholars on the fall of the USSR and the rise of Russia and detail the heroes and the culprits and the whole mechanism on how the west was able to to do the damage. You have given us a thumbnail look into this transition. Can you describe the effect that Putin did have on Serbia and why it thwarted Nato’s plans for the region. I thought Nato got what it wanted in that Kosovo was broken away from Serbia establishing a large base and that Milosevic was overthrown and put in jail in the first actual colored revolution. Also was the Russian forces landing in Pristina airport an essential part of this effect.
I forgot to mention in the last reply that I think that Putin wasn’t crazy about the eastern regions calling for a referendum and forming independence forces. He told them not to do it because he may have seen it as an unnecessary provocation. Maybe he was right. Maybe Putin felt that the situation was salvageable in the whole Ukraine and this move by the eastern regions wasn’t necessary at the time it was done. I usually take Putin at his word. He means what he says. However I don’t want to second guess Novorossia doing this. But the Russian definitely saw things differently than the Novorussians.
That was all a show. Putin wanted Novorossiya to exist, but unofficially. That meant no official request to join RF, and no official help from RF. That means the US had a very difficult time saying Russia was involved. It also flipped the script. The US wanted the Russians to be officially committed and have a regular military presence, and being up against highly funded mercenary and Pravy Sektor Wahhabi/guerrilla tactics.
Putin kept that from happening for as long as possible. Now the US is trying to get the story back where it wanted. But time is running out for NATO. So I have it like that.
The bodies of PMC mercenaries in the Donetsk Airport tunnels will be an interesting PR maneuver. It has been my contention that the actual nation-state system has already died, replaced by the militarized corporate state. The funding mechanism being corporate funding of politicians, who pass laws permitting the use of contracted armies, without national attribution, for deniability. Taking and holding territory is a liability. Future war is drone destruction of economic activity, ethnic cleansing, depopulation, and refugee burden on the opponent. Technically, there are no RF troops nor US/NATO troops
in Ukraine, yet the National Guard was hopelessly outclassed by the non-Russians. The MSM and MSPublic think it’s simplistic. It isn’t.
Lots of tangled webs in this world of deception. So the question is “What is to be done?” For that matter, what should the Syrian government do? Your best-case scenario is nice, but perhaps only a 20% probability. Poroshenko has little support, the Kiev area has become relatively anti-Russian for various reasons, and the West would only recognize a Russian-organized election if it were in their interests. Besides, what would be done with Galicia, Transcarpathia, and Novorossiya? Would a voter turnout of 25% be acceptable?
A possible game plan for the Anglo-Americans would be to have the coup and massacres and force Russia to adequately arm the rebels and those leaning towards Russia in places like Kharkov or Odessa to try to drive the fascists into Galicia. Meanwhile, the radicals could attack Poland and “force” Poland into occupying Galicia and possibly a bit more. All of this would be to re-create the Berlin Wall, and Russia and Poland might have a different opinion about where the wall should go. This might not be the best possible outcome for the Atlanticists, but they could blow up the gas pipelines and continue to destabilize a lot of the Ukraine with their puppet fascists. This might be fertile soil for a false flag or two as well. In addition, Russia would end up occupying the Central Ukraine, which would have a collapsing economy. Would the locals come around to seeing Russians in a favorable light? After all, if the goal is a non-hostile regime in Kiev, you really need a non-hostile population, too. The US would likely use the time-tested method of blowing up crowds of people on both sides of the society (in this case, pro- and anti-Russia) in ways that make it look like the other side did it.
By the way, thanks for your time in the interview.
Your best-case scenario is nice, but perhaps only a 20% probability. Poroshenko has little support, the Kiev area has become relatively anti-Russian for various reasons, and the West would only recognize a Russian-organized election if it were in their interests. Besides, what would be done with Galicia, Transcarpathia, and Novorossiya? Would a voter turnout of 25% be acceptable?
Yes, the likelihood of the best case scenario depends on too many factors, and constructing such models to take that into account all of the variables are simply out of my range of experience and material capacity.
Poroshenko has little support, this is true. On a very real level, one component of Poroshenko’s gamble to build support was to blame the devastation of the country on Russia.
That’s fine and well to get into power – but once in power and to stay in power – real noticeable improvements have to be made. Think about improvements post-Weimar. But that would have to mean getting out of the IMF deal, through the Chinese – obviously a complete 180 which seems unlikely for reasons we already agree.
If reports are accurate, they’ve already blown $5 billion on the war effort. I’m curious how much of that simply lined pockets, because I would be very surprised if the Russians had spent more than 1/5th of that, and with the better results to date.
Elections set for October 26th – I see increased US backed Pravy Sektor pressure to either have Poroshenko renew his pledge to destroy the country, or be faced with a Yanukovic maneuver. PS has already explicitly said as much. PS wants lustration to be complete – in this case a lie which indicates a bigger truth. It is lie that there are not much in the way of ‘secret communists’, but it is truth that there are those still functioning within the state who push for rapprochement with Moscow, a smaller number of whom are likely to be direct Kremlin assets or even agents. Lustration for the PS in practical terms always meant something anti-Russian and not anything too with an abstract ideology like M-L.
I agree, as I’ve stated on your show and written about regarding Poland – who working for NATO – could be ‘attacked’ in a staged event by NATO Pravy Sektor types, in order to get them involved in a broader theater. What follows, again, is all possible.
I’m generally conservative about forecasting, and rather hone in on explaining in more realist terms what has already happened. Things like the US backing Pravy Sektor to, at the very least, serve as a check on forces pulling Poroshenko to be ‘reasonable’, however are neither a stretch nor a projection, but rather a process well under way since his start 100 odd days ago.
Joaquin, Here’s an interesting article I just read.
The author states the premise that basically the Obama administration has thrown in the towel in the quest to control all of Ukraine. The crazies around Victoria Nuland have been defeated first by the quick Russian annexation of Crimea and then by the rebels defeating the Kiev Junta in the east. So in crude terms the west gets the failed state in the western part and Russia gets the destroyed state in the east (although Russia declines to accept it formerly as part of Russia). So the logic of this article makes me believe that the US and Russia will work to manage the de facto division of the Ukraine as it morphs into a sort of West Germany/East Germany situation. Of course it’s not that simple because what about the other pro Russian regions, including Odessa and Kharkov. It just smells like the US and Russia have made an understanding in Ukraine. If the area west of the Dnieper River gets close to the west and east of the river de facto if not de jeure joins Russia which would include Odessa and as long as the western part remains demilitarized and void of Nato then I think it’s great. If that’s how things settle down and there’s more or less peace then it’s a great victory. It appears that Russia scored another impressive diplomatic coup like they did to stop the crazies in Syria last year. Vladimir Putin just does not make mistakes. If things continue like they are for the remainder of Putin’s presidency then he will go down as the greatest Russian leader ever, period. I’m not making hyperbole here. Here are three reasons to support the premise of the article.
1. Poroshenko got nothing in his trip to the US
2. The Nato summit, despite some of the rhetoric, was a real dud with nothing substantial regarding Ukraine
3. John McCain is really pissed off about the US not sending military aid to Ukraine
Joaquin, if true, does that nil the scenario you described above.
My focus is on applying known schools in various fields, which together create an interdisciplinary or syncretic approach to ‘world management’, to explaining what has already occurred. Much of this exposes how those in charge manage perception in various ways, including media (and of course the entire cultural-educational-ideological framework of that society – its schema and weltanschauung. ) In our case, in the west, it is liberalism with its problematic epistemology.
One of my focuses is not only understanding what has happened, but also why many analysts get so much so very wrong. I have attempted to explain my view which is that they are still operating within a controlled schema which places too much value in several things:
1.) Recent headlines over the total body or history
2.) Official statements over known M.O’s and long term goals
3.) Modern Epistemic framework and information gathering
4.) Illusion of US desire for ‘stability’ over reality of destructive course
An example of Zuesse’s problem is evidenced very early on, giving us a clear view that he has no understanding of Arab Spring/Color Revolutions, as he uses this following (I quote) as two of his operating ‘thesis’ headlines:
““Because the USA needs Russia in its fight against terror-IS, the G20 speculation to isolate Russia in the world community has been shelved. The conflict in the Eastern Ukraine is therefore classified as [being only] regionally [important].””
This is based on the, quite frankly, contemptuous notion that the US is ‘fighting ISIS’, (instead of creating it) and/or to the extent that it needs ‘partners’ for doing so.
The Zuesse article makes many of the very same errors in reasoning which my work has tried to explain. Zuesse takes headlines and official statements at face-value, as containing enough elements of the truth-as-presented to make a coherent picture of the event. That is very problematic. Very respectfully brother, if you’ve absorbed or understood the material I have produced on this subject, there should be little if any question as to how I would respond to an article such as the one you’ve cited and linked.
The article contains serious errors and does not represent either the facts nor the established modus operandi. Your last question then can only be answered like this: Of course if all of this erroneous stuff were in fact not erroneous, then yes it would nil any scenario which actually takes into account the known facts and established m.o of the Atlanticists.
Putin is likely to go down as the greatest Russian leader in the post-war era anyhow. With the ”The three reasons” that you give which support the premise of the article, therein lies a complication. Those three points, while on the surface somewhat true, are not the premise of the Zuesse article in my view.
The premise is that the US somehow thinks itself frustrated or defeated, and is calling it a day. That is fallacious, because the US is involved in perpetual war and develops its assets and only develops any catastrophe it begins into a further catastrophe.
The US may call it a day, for 5 or 10 years in that theatre, if it no longer had cards to play. But it still has cards to play. That is one of the premises of my article above.
If you agree that the US still has cards to play, then it is not calling it a day.
Zuesse doesn’t understand the goal of the US in Ukraine. At all. It is not to ‘control’ Ukraine. It is to destroy it, and in so doing, attempt to damage and set back Russia-Europe bilateral relations.
There are elements of truth in the Zuesse article, but the short-term and long term problems with NATO and the growing divide – which I have spoken at length before about – between the EU Eurasianists and the EU Atlanticists – is already a known thing which has affected this whole thing from the start.
Keep in mind that my concept in the above article is not reliant on broad NATO support, but only on using the US’s combined money printing and black budget to support a Pravy Sektor taking over of the goal of destabilization, in a way similar to ISIS.
And I agree, though it is nothing original – I have also already discussed this – that Merkel represents a tendency of those who seek to mitigate the damage that the US wants to do to Europe-Russia bilateral relations, while at the same time being inclusive of the Atlanticists and not making the rift more evident.
So Zuesse is right that the sanctions are not as serious (so far) as more serious ones could be. Superficially, that is mere tautology, but as a statement it is “true”.
More to the point: I am no sage and no future seer. I’m a simply an analyst. With the exception of one rather serious future possible scenario – which is this article of mine above – I do not deal much in the realm of forecasting. These involve too many variables. Even in my above article, I give more than several clear statements that it is all hypothetical. In my audio presentation and interview contained at the start of my article, at around the one hour mark, I go into some greater detail as well – things not included in the article. Hope you’ve had the time to hear that, and my past work on that. I would be honored if you have.
Great discussion! Creating a failed state in countries that the US wants to control is nothing new. What I disagree with is the notion that the US wants to create a failed state just for the sake of it and causing trouble for its neighbors by the fact of it being in chaos in perpetuity. The goal is to overthrow a legitimate government thus creating a failed state and then organizing a force to enter into the vacuum that the US created. This is how it was done in Iran in 1954, Guatemala in 1954 and Chile in 1973 by creating havoc in the streets and organizing sabotage of the industrial sector and strikes and so forth. They created a failed state for a short while and then pro US dictators came in to restore order and do the bidding of the US. By overthrowing Saddam Hussein in 2003 they created a failed state and into the vacuum entered the US military and its installed pro US regime. The easy part was creating the failed state and installing their puppets. The difficult part was maintaining control and because of the uprising of the Shia population and the Sunni guerrilla war that killed 4000 US soldiers and the fact that Iran benefitted from the Saddam overthrow, the US lost control of Iraq and was defeated. The US created a failed state in Libya by overthrowing Kaddafi and into the vacuum came pro US forces temporarily. Again like in Iraq things went out of control with the former US supported forces killing the US ambassador Stevens and now the US has lost control of the situation. So to repeat myself the US has always and will always create failed states temporarily until they can put their forces into power. This is nothing more nor nothing less.
Now let’s look at Ukraine. The US in fact did create a failed state very short term in Kiev by overthrowing Yanukovich. For a short time there was a power vacuum which of course got filled by US puppet Yats. So mission accomplished so far. There was no need to plunge the whole country into chaos because they got their man in power. At this point in February of this year this is the following of what they tried to accomplish.
1. Take over the entire Ukraine by appointing stooges into the governorships especially in the pro Russian oblasts
2. Begin ethnic cleansing by outlawing the Russian language
3. Take over the naval bases by Nato in Crimea by kicking out the Russians
4. Once they accomplished 1-3 they would invite Nato in and install forward bases up to the border with Russia
At no time did the US entertain the notion of destroying the whole of Ukraine and making it a failed country. Why do that. The neocon crazies thought they could accomplish items 1-4 and make Ukraine an anti-Russian battering ram just like they were sure that they could make Iraq an anti-Iran battering ram.
How have they done so far. They failed on every count. #1 Instead of stooges in power and #2 Russian outlawed in the Donbass they got Russian speaking rebels now in charge who are working with Russia proper. #3 Russia beat them to the punch and with lightening speed took over Crimea.
#4 Nato will not take over Ukraine (Nato summit a dud and Poroshenko getting zilch from his visit to the US)
Now at this stage since the US will not get items 1-4 on their wish list, the US, in my humble opinion, knows that the jig is up. They are in active discussion with Russia to basically find a face saving way out of the US predicament. Joaquin, I understand why you think we shouldn’t pay attention to leaders’ comments and recent news because that is just for public show but I think you can learn a lot from reading in between the lines and watching their body language. And I repeat everything now smells and tastes like the time in August of last year when Russia found the Obama administration a face saving way to retreat from Syria with the chemical weapons pact.
I made a mistake in making you think that because of this US defeat in stage 1 that all is hunky dory and the US will just pack up and leave. Absolutely not! Not for one second do I believe that the US won’t try through other ways to succeed. They were defeated last year and retreated in Syria but as we know they’re trying through the back door to invade Syria again. Indeed they may try the Pravy Sector takeover scenario that you laid out. But that too is chock full of risks for the US. And besides that how do we know that Russia hasn’t told the US that their red line is a Pravy Sector coup and with serious consequences if they go through with it. I really think that US options are really limited now and the Russian diplomacy has greatly cornered them into almost no options save the fascist coup one. The US, on the world stage, is really acting out of weakness.
If the US and Russia are playing poker the US has a very weak hand compared to Russia. Look at the Russian cards to play. They have close proximity with fraternal cultural and linguistic ties with Ukraine with not only 70 years together in the USSR but hundreds of years of development together. Russia has very strong links to millions of people in Ukraine and I’m sure in the Ukrainian intelligence and military services. Russia also has a huge army that can invade Ukraine on a moment’s notice. After all this is not Afghanistan, the middle east nor Latin America but Russia’s heartland. And the mother of all cards is natural gas that Ukraine and Europe depend upon. The only card the US has is the Pravy Sector. That’s pretty pathetic.
I don’t think any of us really know what the next steps of the US are going to be. I wish I could be a fly on the wall at one of the top level meetings to discuss Ukraine in Washington. If, as you say, the US is that nihilistic in wanting to destroy Ukraine and to hell with the consequences then the US ruling circles really have lost their marbles.
One more point I want to make. I don’t think we should assume that there is some monolithic opinion in Washington regarding the Ukraine as though all the intelligence services, diplomatic services and the military act like the Borg civilization in Star Trek, one mind. There could be increasing dissension to what the US is doing not only in Ukraine but in the Middle East. A case in point. Remember the multi year threat of the US to invade Iran last decade. Well the Pentagon ran many war game scenarios on their super computers on various invasion scenarios and without exception the US failed on all counts. They couldn’t come up with a plan that would succeed. So the idea to invade Iran was mothballed. Couldn’t do it. How do we know that they haven’t ran the same game plan regarding Ukraine and the results were not good for the US. Could that be the reason the US and Russia are in close negotiations on this. Something to think about.
So in conclusion if the only last option (the Hail Mary Pass) for the US is the fascist coup one and if through war game scenarios this is fraught with terrible risks and the likelihood of failure then adult supervisors will take over and lead the US in a face saving retreat out of Ukraine. This is what I believe will happen.
Hank – you are free to comment here. You are not free to misrepresent what I’ve said, and then say for yourself things which I in fact have actually said already. On a separate note …
“What I disagree with is the notion that the US wants to create a failed state just for the sake of it and causing trouble for its neighbors by the fact of it being in chaos in perpetuity. ”
Stop lying about what I’ve said. About 5,000 times I’ve explained the goal of a failed state. I won’t deign to belabor the point again, hence allowing myself to be trolled. It just doesn’t register for you. The world works in a way much differently from how you imagine it. Not sure what you’ve written or where you studied, but you are ‘not’ entitled to an opinion on equal footing. You don’t have the credentials and you’ve now demonstrated a propensity to not even dig into the material that you’re commenting on. I’m guessing you’re American?
You don’t understand how this works, in Ukraine. That much is evident. You’ve got me a little peeved, really.
“So to repeat myself the US has always and will always create failed states temporarily until they can put their forces into power. This is nothing more nor nothing less.”
Wrong, wrong and wrong again. And everything up until that, and after that – again wrong. Just plain wrong. And you aren’t free to hog up space and my attention repeating the same erroneous nonsense.
Your’re looking at reality in the face and saying it’s something else.
In every case you mentioned, it went back into a failed state. And, you also in a few major instances have the entire order of events wrong. The goal is a failed state.
Finally, while your comments are ‘generally’ welcome here – they are far to lengthy to take my time to ‘dig’ into. This isn’t really a two way street. I’m working on other projects. If you **really** want to know what *I* think (hence the purpose of my employment here), then get into what I’ve said before on Paul’s Time-Monk Radio programs, on Morris108 videos, and in past articles here.
You’d be surprised how many questions and hypotheticals that you raise have already been addressed.
You’ve got the entire script backwards. You’re free to disagree – please though don’t post your own attempts at articles here. They must be short, because I won’t allow ones so long that deep inside are riddled with misrepresentations of my own work. I can’t possibly read what you’re writing here.
Consider yourself duly warned.
“…the short-term and long term problems with NATO and the growing divide – which I have spoken at length before about – between the EU Eurasianists and the EU Atlanticists – is already a known thing which has affected this whole thing from the start.”
Joaquin, do you by chance have a link to your text/talk on this divide? I would be interested in hearing/reading it. Thanks.
My gut instinct says the war is just getting started, not coming to an end. The US didn’t invest that much time and money to just say “Oh, I guess we need to stop because Poroshenko is incompetent, and Europeans are starting to see through our scam.” Look at Syria to see how determined they are.
But this is a modern war, without the kind of fights that occurred in WWII. The US is unhappy that the media story is the US and Kiev are the Empire fighting the little rebels. Whatever McCain or a NATO representative say is hardly worth getting excited about. Also, there are many oligarchs in the Ukraine who don’t want the country destroyed, and the US may want to not be too obvious about its warmongering. So the English media will talk peace, but the back story will be war.
Great article!Thank you!
Thank you Mr. Jovic
Great article!! I have two questions.
1. I believe that NATO (USA + EU) oligarchs especially in Germany are very interested in Ukraine assets such as crops, shipyards, steel mills, machine tools factories……and their high qualified/low wages labor market.
Don’t you think that under such hypothesis NATO will try for any means to achieve total victory, that means the total destruction of the East Ukraine resistance? Before they can apply the new strategy taking PS to power?
2. You assume that the ISIS offensive is a new methodology to make of a country a failed state (I do too).
Don’t you believe that the use of fascist gangs to overthrow governments will be applied in other countries of Europe and maybe South America? If you agree can you write something about that?
1.) The EU can take advantage of these high skills + low wages as they are now by having them come to work in Germany, thereby having about the same effect on the wages market there. Of course there’s more to it and that doesn’t fully answer your question. They want to destroy Ukraine, not the resistance per se. If the resistance exists, more reason to fight. Or, invent another one if the resistance is crushed. Any of the assets you mentioned, they will try to operate them under failed-state conditions by having tiny – several kilometer squared – security zones where this value extraction can take place.
2.) In Latin America, they will use a variation. It may involve far-right paramilitary at some point, but the initial destabilization will be some variation of the ‘left’. The Otpor! model will be used in Latin America for the mass movement part, because this splits the ruling leftist coalitions, penetrates them, undermines their support, and confuses the discourse. I have some videos already about Latin America. More writing on the subject as it becomes pertinent. I am not just an analyst, but actively involved in this Ukraine fight. Thanks for reading!
Thank you very much for your reply. It clarify a lot what is happening in Ukraine and what can happen in the future.
I also can understand much better Russia-Putin strategy, if the Ukraine Civil war is confined to DPR and LPR battlefield the damage will be much more small than a fight in the whole country, city by city, then when the Ukraine population is ready for a mass rebellion (if there is any), Russia-Putin can support them and conduct the regime change in Kiev.
Taken and overview of what it is happening in the world in the last 10 years I might deduce that NATO long run strategy is to reset the whole world to the conditions that existed at the end of the XIX and beginning of the XX centuries. When the only countries with a strong central power were the imperial powers, anyone else was in total anarchy.
If NATO can achieve such goal they can reset their debts with the defeated/failed states forever.
Do you agree?
Yes, I agree completely. They would also like to destroy infrastructure and material development of the physical economies in such places, and also in that sense return the world to circa 1900. This would give them the comparative advantage without having to do increase productive capacity under the present competitive conditions, which suffers an overall tendency of diminishing returns and decreasing rates of profit, based in some form of labor theory of value.
I didn’t mean to get you angry and take up your valuable time. I’m not a troll but a big fan of yours. So I just want to get that straight. In the future I’ll keep my comments brief. I do have a tendency to be too wordy. After listening to your most recent interview with Morris you did bring up a real concern of the Pravy Sector staging a false flag using possible nuclear material. I find this more of a danger than anything else. Is it really true that they control the nuclear power plants. That would be horrible. If this is true has Russia said anything about this. Have they openly complained to the UN or to the IAEA about this. And if not, why not. If the Pravy Sector is in control then I’m sure Russia must know about it. So what gives. Either Russia is being lax or it’s just not true about them controlling the nuclear plants. Public exposure would lessen the threat of a false flag. Please explain if you can.
re: If, as you say, the US is that nihilistic in wanting to destroy Ukraine and to hell with the consequences then the US ruling circles really have lost their marbles.
Geopolitics is not based on morality. The consequences are good for the US. They may be bad for the EU, but that is a separate story. I also think you have to keep in mind that the US cannot easily get the Ukraine to build a military that will attack Russia or the Crimea. The entire society has Russian agents or people with some connection to Russia who will not want to do such a foolish thing. Look at the failures in the war on the Donbass. Then add in the damage this will do to business and infrastructure. A PS coup could bring in a much greater degree of CIA/MI6/Mossad types, and even a clean sweep of the military, so that is why this is a possibility. But, if not, a failed state will cause serious damage to Russia and interfere with Eurasianist plans from Europe. What is not to like?
So what strategy would you recommend to someone in US ruling circles? What is better than a failed state?
I absolutely agree with the premise that the US wants to stop in its tracks an economic space from Lisbon to Vladivostok. The US ruling circles are also aware of how the US benefitted from two world wars in Europe. Would complete anarchy and a failed state in Ukraine be good for the US. It all depends on who in the US we are talking about. Crazed psychopathic and sociopathic neo cons in the US. Absolutely. The people in general including most businesses, no. It would have no benefit and could be very dangerous for them. And who’s to say that anarchy in Ukraine would be limited to just Ukraine. Things always have a way of spinning out of control and original plans of the instigators always have a way of going in directions that they didn’t intend. War is like that. Who’s also to say that anarchy and a failed state in Ukraine won’t draw in Poland, Hungary, Romania, and the Baltics and cause failed states in those countries. If that happens would that benefit the US ruling circles. After all those countries are all in Nato. So who knows where this could lead to. Maybe those Nato neighbors of Ukraine will get ruined but Russia will be alright. Would that benefit US ruling circles. This is what happens when psychopathic leaders think they are masters of the universe and they can control all future events.
One other point. Is the Pravy Sector complete drug induced zombies, puppets and robots of the US who will do 100% whatever the US asks of them. Or does the PS have their own hidden agenda for the region which could be separate and possibly in future conflict from the US. In other words could the PS be loose cannons.
In general, I’ve thought your commentary was fine. We all have our days – apparently you had yours, and then I had mine.
Russia is not trying to ring alarm bells right now about a few things. They are promoting the ‘ceasefire is holding’ line, with some exceptions. There are all kinds of channels and ways that governments (etc.) note certain things and make it known that they know. But not all of these are promoted in the news cycle.
There are five nuclear plants in Ukraine. They are all within the territory of the Kiev Junta. Pravy Sektor, in my reasoning, may have relatively fluid access to any one of these.
Promoting that fact alone, may be all that is needed and all that can be done to reduce the risk of a false flag being pulled off; or if pulled of, failing to be blamed on Russia/Novorossiya.
The problem with registering a legal complaint is that there are no real legal ways to make this a problem. I’m no legal expert, but the KJ has integrated the PS into its army, and is responsible to the ATO, and recognized as part of the command chain.
Hi Joaquin, thanks for your thoughtful reply. I think you’ve done a great service in putting forth this possible fascist coup scenario and your logic is impeccable because of past US actions. The thought of a country the size of Ukraine plunging into complete anarchy with a failed state is really terrifying and should give sane people in power both in Europe and also in the US some pause for thought. Notice I use the word SANE. I completely and wholeheartedly agree with you that the plan of the US is to disrupt a potential economic space from Lisbon to Vladivostok any which way they can. And the US ruling circles are also aware of how they benefitted from two world wars in Europe. Since the US is the instigator then all eyes should be focused on Germany and see if they finally tell the US to go take a hike. If the German Atlantacists believe that a Ukraine in anarchy will be limited to just the Ukraine then they have another thing coming. Who knows where this will end up. You could destabilize Poland, Hungary, Romania, etc. which by the way are all Nato countries. What if there’s a chain reaction of a smaller bank going under and that triggers runs on Deutsche Bank and so forth. Don’t forget that England and France encouraged Hitler to first attack the Soviet Union thinking in the words of Harry Truman to let the Germans and Russians kill each other off. Well you know what happened next. Things have a way of getting out of control. War is like that.
Thank you very much for your feedback, and also congratulations for the great interview in “The Plane Truth” Radio show.
In your reply to me you said “this would give them the comparative advantage without having to do increase productive capacity under the present competitive conditions, which suffers an overall tendency of diminishing returns and decreasing rates of profit, based in some form of labor theory of value.”
I agree with your statement but also means that Marx was totally right, that the Law of Accumulation and Fall of the Capitalist system is close to be demonstrated at Global scale and the leading capitalist countries (NATO) have two exits to destroy accumulated capital and restart-reset economic grow: one is world war, that means nuclear war something that nobody wants because is an endgame for everybody, and the other one is what we were talking, the creation of XIX century failed states at global scale for their reconstruction and increase of debt.
Do you believe that the NATO leadership knows about Marx (Marx experts) to arrive to such conclusion or their arrive to that by numbers and chance?
The dark side of this is that I believe that NATO countries have the upper hand in this game, they control the financial system (IMF, World Bank, Bank of International Settlements, SWIFT…), Oil and gas markets by trading in dollars in New York and London, Sea lines (US and UK navies) and media, besides the military power that cannot win wars but can destroy countries.
Besides there is little or no ideological alternative that BRICS countries leadership has to offer, they are capitalist countries nevertheless, probably NovoRussia is a game changer from this point of view including class struggle and that is why is so important what it is happening there.
It was very good the analogy that you did between NovoRussia and the Spanish civil war your are actually the only commentator that did it and I also agree on that.
Indeed, you caught my Marx reference. Keynes basically restates Marx – he’s the continuation of the LTV school. The whole modern world is based upon the actual implementation of the LTV school, including Keynes. The STV or MTV schools were just cults used to throw a form of numerical pepper spray into the public’s eyes. It was just an ideology used to justify certain policy changes, with an aim towards the upward transfer of wealth and pirating the real value produced by labor and ingenuity. It was also used to create a false dichotomy between the scarcity based planned economies of the east and the scarcity based planned economies of the west.
BRICS has the New Development Bank now. They won’t need the World Bank to deal with balance of payment problems. They can still deal with the IMF on some things, but can deal with the ‘basket currency’ approach of the NDB and not deal with the WB.
The ideology in this phase is lagging behind the development. If Novorossiya can be for central and eastern Europe what the Bolivarian revolution was for Latin America, that would be pretty great.
I have concerns about the ideological dimensions, but years have taught me that the solutions will be driven by the base.
Joaquin, Thank for your reply, you said:
1. “The ideology in this phase is lagging behind the development.”
Indeed, and that could be dangerous because is like start to move without knowing were you are going. Anyway there are many positive ideological things in the Novorossiya movement.
First Novorossiya people don’t want to go back to the status quo before the rebellion, second there is a general agreement to build a society without oligarchs, they don’t know how yet, and the bad thing is that they have fears or are ashamed to use the word socialism even thought they vindicate the Soviet Union. Third, people already buried any hope that the EU and USA are good friends with good intentions, the 90’s are gone.
2. “I have concerns about the ideological dimensions, but years have taught me that the solutions will be driven by the base.”
I am not so sure about that, for example you can see the Catalonian independence movement whose ideological leadership belongs to Catalonian oligarchs sponsored by Vatican, Israel and German oligarchs, I was living there and I have a clear picture of what it is happening. Summarizing if the Catalonian independence movement succeed it will become a new Kiev-Ukraine full of Poroshenkos.
I am a bit afraid that the Novorossiya movement for Freedom and Justice can be twisted or betrayed.
3. “If Novorossiya can be for central and eastern Europe what the Bolivarian revolution was for Latin America that would be pretty great.”
So be it!
It isn’t feasible to expound here, but a few thoughts:
NATO’s control over the financial system is not what it used to be. UnionPay is bigger than VISA and MasterCard combined. And the BRICS countries are building alternative systems. The sea lanes are under US control, don’t think the UK has much these days. However, this is why heavy rail, pipelines, fast trains, and new canals are being worked on. The US can’t afford to be everywhere all the time. Plus, the funder (such as China) calls a lot of the shots. If the new canal across Thailand gets built, all that infrastructure in Singapore will be worth a lot less, and China will own at least half of the surrounding area.
As for media power, well, how strong is it in, say, Indonesia or India? Strong, but not dominant. These countries now have their own production companies and movie making, so it is not all translated versions of US material. A bigger problem is the lure of the American Dream, which has conned many Indians.
No question that the US has the military power to crush almost everybody. But do you really think the US can smash India because Modi is becoming friendly to Russia and China and is trying to modernize the country? Russia has a tremendous military at the moment, too, but how much can it be used?
The ideological side is a real can of worms. For one thing, a focus on production and people’s actual lives needs to be what governments work on, not something like GDP. The media need to say “Indonesia’s literacy rate went from 85% to 91% over the last five years.” not “Indonesia’s GDP has grown 15% over the last five years.” GDP can just mean more derivatives and the arrival of loan sharks in business suits.
I would like to hear the Eurasianists talk more about the National (or American) System of Political Economy that Friedrich List discussed, and how it worked for America and Germany in the past, and now China to some extent today. Obviously, theory and practice are totally different, but the point is a focus on real production and measurable improvements in people’s lives. Of course, stray Communists can point out that the USSR under Stalin had impressive growth under terribly trying circumstances, so that has to examined as well. Maybe national purpose is what makes the difference.
I think it would be great to do a show with Paul on the possible consequences of a successful takeover by the Pravy Sector. I know it’s all speculation but it would be interesting nonetheless. I think you’re doing a great service by talking up this potential scenario and hopefully by exposing their plans it will have some effect on preventing it from coming to fruition. If possible could you speculate on some of my questions regarding a PS takeover of Kiev.
1. Would a nazi takeover of Kiev (if I’m not mistaken it would be the first nazi movement coup since WW2 in Europe) cause huge dissension in Europe with both pro and anti nazis flooding different parts of Ukraine and igniting a re-hash of the Spanish Republic a la 1930’s with Novorossia playing the role as the Spanish Republic and Yarosh strarring as Franco.
2. Could you see a situation where there is blowback against the US and atlantacists or will the US totally get a free ride out of this with no ramifications for them
3. Can you speculate on how it may influence politics in Ukraines’ neighbors like Poland, Hungary, Romania, etc. and could there be similar splits in provoking conflict between pro and anti nazi forces
4. Is the PS totally contolled by the US or is it a marriage of convenience and if the latter could the PS agenda at some point digress from Washington.
That’s far too speculative as a sole subject, but also I pretty well cover all the basics in the article above. In the interview, we also go through some of the basic suppositions. Speculation is not really my field! I always cringe when others do these, there’s a market for it – but If i were interested in markets I’d have gone to business school and be a rich guy with hair plugs.
I’m very pressed for time and am putting about 16 hours a day into my combined activities.
I will very briefly answer your 4 questions. Forgive if they are too brief or even blunt. 🙂
1.) Yes, and I already said that.
2.) Blowback already happened a long time ago, the world’s moving on, no one trust’s the US. They just have nukes – they are the lunatic in the room who thinks they are sane, so no one calls them crazy lest they nuke everyone.
3.) I covered that. Listen again! If Ukraine collapses, the various parts are up for grabs. Other interesting things happening in the West Balkans now. Serbia, Bosnia, etc.
4.) Totally controlled in the places that count. Rank and file have no idea, just like ISIS/Al Qaeda. They tell their wives, friends, and kids that its a real thing, and they go die for a cause they think is real.
“no one trust’s the US. They just have nukes – they are the lunatic in the room who thinks they are sane, so no one calls them crazy lest they nuke everyone.” – That’s very good. Great article too. Reading this blog is a bit like being a another ‘Matrix’ only for real, er, or not-real.
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Thanks Joaquin, very interesting and thought-provoking.
I find that I gel with you greatly, after over fifty years paying attention as best I can.
The US is broke and going for broke. Obama has doubled downed on PNAC. ISIS is nothing but a name change and another way to get into Syria. Interestingly, IRAN may make peace with the West before the need for overthrow becomes a necessity ( if it ever was for anyone other than Israel) A failed State on Russia’s border serves US interests even more than a democratic and functioning economy does. And US goals are stated above PNAC full spectrum dominance. Whether Europe will put up with this and for how much longer is the real question. The longer fascist tendencies continue and are exposed the better for Russia who no doubt is looking to split the NATO alliance and Ukraine offers an excellent reason for why this should be so. The sooner NATO ends the better off the world will be as far as I am concerned. Unfortunately as one who lives in the West watching the social surplus go up in smoke brings no joy. Our real enemy is at home-the sooner people come to this conclusion the better off we and the rest of the world will be.
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Thanks for the great analysis. Truly excellent work.
I am reading your blog for the first time. As a tradesperson, I want to tell you that your hard work is very evident here. You have my thanks.
My children often ask me why these wars are always “happening”. They are most certainly not satisfied with the explanations they are given at school. I have been telling them that chaos and confusion in places such as Libya , Syria, Ukraine etc. benefit those in control of our society. Destruction of societies which may harbour alternatives to “our way of life” is much preferable and profitable —and indeed crucial to maintaining it.
My youngest and his buddies asked me if ww3 was going to happen (they seem to think I’m some kind of authority as I was in Afghanistan in 07/08). It’s hard to convey to you the very real concern on their faces while asking the question. I answered as best I could ( I’m an electrician) in a way I hoped they could understand.
I said that we had ww3. I grew up during it. We are in WW4 and it is not the same as the wars before. It’s even more dangerous as the means of communicating falsehoods are much much more elaborate and rapid.
They asked me what can we do? I said, no matter what, keep asking questions and keep looking for answers that make sense. And no matter what, communicate with others who are asking questions too. I made sure to advise them to make friends with those who are fighting for a different world than the one being crafted by those running things here.
Friends like the Russians.
Thank you Richard, that made my day. At the risk of sounding trite, the truth is, you are the reason I do this.
Beautiful reply Joaquin and a great post from Richard, who seems a lot like me and not just because I was a tradesman myself (to old and disabled now).
Hi Joakim. I’m very impressed by the quality and scope of your analysis. You have truly made your homework and have a good grip of the overall strategic geopolitical aims of the Western elites as well as their warfare methods and are not distracted by smoke screens and side-tracks. Two questions: are you familiar with the work of the Larouche crowd? (larouchepac.com) and where can I find more of your work on Latinamerica? Cheers!
Thank you Sophi.
I am familiar with Larouche. I’m curious what will happen with the org with Larouche in the winter of his life and now having lost most of their most talented youth and activists (with Skye Shields, et al). Maybe it was a double edged sword for them to pretend that US and world events were spinning around Larcouhe. A strange cult indeed. Some interesting ideas though, and some developmental programs which reminded me of the old Technocracy party some 70+ years ago.
At least they produced Tarpley at some point during the US Labor Party years – definitely an improvement over the Spartacist League or the SWP. The British Royal family and the City of London are definitely left out of most otherwise decent descriptions of the A5+I (Anglo-Zionist aka British Empire).
We only have a few pieces on Latin America. Mostly on Morris108 youtube channel, where I have a playlist, I have given short verbal discourses on Latin American issues. I did not agree at all with Larouche’s view in 1999 that Chavez was a Synarchist working for the Queen of England.
On the topic of neo-facist Gedankengut/mythology:
“There are many elements of truth to their critique of capitalist and consumerist western civilization, and moreover there is no reason to think, in the abstract, that their solutions might not be required given their desired goal. But in a similar way to how some of the finer points of Islam are used by Wahhabism to the benefit of US and Zionist regional hegemony, in turn it is the very same consumerist and materialist west which is manipulating this false simulacrum war against the modern world in order to perpetuate the actual-reality of the modern world, indefinitely. ”
POWERFUL Joaquin Flores
My mind is still reeling from all of the CSS pieces I have been reading lately, In particular the article on the “astounding” Novorossian victories was a real eye opener for me.
also thanks Sofia for asking about the “Larouchies”.
An “interesting cult” indeed, and a question that needed to be asked, considering they are some of the few in the west to even use the word “Eurasia”
there was a bit of a “purge” amongst their numbers a few years ago(as Flores pointed out), most of the people there that had any integrity were disgusted by it, and the old man in particular really showed his true colors(im no larouchey by any means, but some of my family were)
Anyhow, keep up the excellent work, and best of wishes from the US colony of Deutschland
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