Pravy Sektor Coup as ISIS Scenario: NATO to Feign a ‘Unilateral’ Alliance With Russia
The US stages a coup ousting Poroshenko and installs Pravy Sektor in order to build international support for a Human Rights intervention against Pravy Sektor and to restore ‘democracy’ and ‘order’; the real aim being to create a failed state, perpetuate indefinite war on Russia’s door and even World War … and beyond
Audio Interview on this subject: 2 hours
he time has come to explore the growing possibility of a US covert funding of a Pravy Sektor putsch against the pseudo-constitutional republican junta led by Poroshenko. Also required is an examination of the relevant factors surrounding it. This may prove a necessary strategy towards the ultimate desired position of the US, that being to continue the infinite game scenario which the US is pushing in the former Ukraine. While naturally, as in the field of geostrategic forecasting, we cannot claim this to be a foregone eventuality. Based on how developments have materialized as of the date of publishing, we now have this at a less than 40% probability of occurrence. However, the more that public awareness of this increases, it may mitigate either its occurrence chance, or if implemented, its efficacy.
Liberal Western audiences will easily be whipped into a hysteria about the Pravy Sektor, and for a NATO R2P type action of sorts in the former Ukraine. It will be more effective on the propaganda front in many ways than the ‘War on Terror’. At least Western left-liberals are by in large skeptical of claims that ‘all’ Muslims are terrorists, but there is no doubt that all Nazis are Nazis. This is a significant point.
Nazis are far worse than Islamic Terrorists, and more over, in the western mind, Nazis are far worse than Communists, even Russian Communists. This has created a new quasi-secular religion in the West: one where everyone is compelled to worship Hitler as an Evil Demi-God who demands the never ending blood sacrifice of ‘very bad people’ in order to avert his own very resurrection upon the temporal plane.
Any theory regarding a possible strategic scenario which takes into account the known facts including the known positions, and provides realistic solutions for each of the existing problems, requires further consideration. Additionally when this is also modeled after a strategy which has already been employed before, and moreover is being presently employed in the middle-east with ISIS/ISIL, it becomes even more necessary to consider.
As we have previously written and discussed for the last nine months, as exampled by our February 27th video interview/presentation with transcript titled ‘Right Sector are the Wahhabis in Ukrainian Spring‘, the immediate aim of the US is in creating a never ending mid-level conflict-war in the region, with the long-term goal of:
1.) Destroying Europe and Russia economic integration
2.) Delegitimizing the Russian state, and,
3.) Breaking Russia up ultimately into ten or more mutually hostile statelettes comprised from the 85 present subjects of the Russian Federation.
Once it is understood that these, and not “peace, European integration and development” are US goals, the efficacy of this kind of US plan can be better understood. The US wants to reduce the European economy as well, this strengthening its own both in relative terms and by filling in the gaps created in absolute terms. As an infinite game, it requires changing the rules to keep the game going. First the the rule was to support ‘democratic rule’ in Ukraine through ‘moderates’ like Poroshenko and to pretend that Pravy Sektor are not ultra-right neo-nazi types. And if this is leading eventually soon to a resolution, regardless of the outcome, then the rules change to keep the game going.
Stages of the Strategy:
*The Media Spectacle Warms Up
*Premised that US and Russia already agree: Poroshenko is the Moderate (or better than the alternative)
*The US Makes sure Poroshenko Loses on the Political and Military Fronts
* The Execution (In Chapters)
* Regional War – Total War: Problems and Solutions
The Media Spectacle Warms Up – Just like In Syria
The Pravy Sektor in this hypothetical scenario finally are recognized as neo-nazi ‘fanatics’, and roundly condemned. One clue, as with the case in the middle-east with Al-Nusra split from the FSA, and ultimately ISIS, would be the ramping up of media attention. After the chemical weapons de-escalation situation, the western official MSM began to report more about atrocities carried out by Al-Nusra and then ISIS/ISIL. We are seeing a somewhat similar pattern emerge in the last week or two in the western press.
Bear in mind that the more distance that western press can create between the ‘regular’ army of Poroshenko and the ‘unaccountable’ and ‘war crimes’ nature of the Pravy Sektor battalions (Aidar, Azov, etc.) the easier it will be to sell this falsehood to the public.
For example, we have seen this report by George Soros’s Open Society Institute funded group Amnesty International of September 8 titled:
We have also seen this stunning shift in reporting from the Guardian dated September 10:
Critical attention should be paid here to the second part of this headline as it mirrors numerous threats made by Yarosh should they view that Poroshenko is mismanaging the ATO or that lustration processes are not carried out sufficiently.
Also we saw stunningly from CNN this one, who until recently pretended that ATO operations were clean and only targeted ‘terrorist rebels’. This article focuses on the misery brought to Donetsk and Lugansk residents from KJ shelling, even sympathetically quoting several residents in their plea to Poroshenko to cease the activities. dated September 2
The New York Times also has flipped the script in at first an apparently muted fashion, but reading into the article dated an early August 9, we find near the bottom and important element of this hypothetical strategy,
“Officials in Kiev say the militias and the army coordinate their actions, but the militias, which count about 7,000 fighters, are angry and, at times, uncontrollable. One known as Azov, which took over the village of Marinka, flies a neo-Nazi symbol resembling a Swastika as its flag.
In pressing their advance, the fighters took their orders from a local army commander, rather than from Kiev. In the video of the attack, no restraint was evident.”
Also note in the above headline the espousing of a Russia acting with restraint.
Also a little ahead of the script, then would be the Telegraph article, dated August 11,
The Irish Times, testing the waters, reports on July 17th
Russia and NATO Already Agree: Poroshenko is a ”Moderate”
The line about Poroshenko being a moderate remains, but once out of power it is only lamenting that he will receive from the US. The US will be nominally committed to restoring Poroshenko, and will use this as the legal basis for their increased bellicosity in the region, but in actual fact will support Pravy Sektor economically and militarily in order to ensure that the fight continues on, destroying infrastructure and creating a lasting social psychology of distrust and never-ending warlordism (as done in El Salvador, Nicaragua, Libya, etc.).
This was exactly what was done in Afghanistan when the US funded four factions with varying degrees of mutual hostility, simultaneously: The Taliban (supposedly Al Qaeda/MAK), the Northern Alliance, the Kabul Government, and its own US forces on the ground.
At the same time Russia will have a hard time, unless they pull back out Yanukovich or some other well executed meme, disagreeing on that point. Russia did after all recognize the legitimacy of the May elections in Kiev, even though they were illegal under Ukrainian law.
Keep in mind that the Pravy Sektor coup will involve more than several Odessa type massacres, more photos of cut heads and burnt bodies. The victims won’t just be ethnic Russians in the east, but even liberal left and liberal right pro-EU Ukrainians who, numerically speaking, together were the majority of the original Euro-Majdan protesters back in November of 2013. This is sure to get the R2P cogs turning within both the European and US discourse (the so-called International Community)
If Russians are behind in the information war game in speaking out on their behalf (though we doubt they will be), it will be even easier for the NATO propaganda machine to claim the moral high ground – NATO through its EU proxies in civil society will claim to represent not only the ‘human rights’ interests of ethnic Russians in the east, but Ukrainians in the center and west of the former Ukraine.
Those who are conflicted by their partiality towards Novorossiya and dislike for Putin will be among the easiest to pull towards the pro-European intervention line in opposition to the Pravy Sektor Junta. They will reason that since Putin let this happen, and this is Putin’s fault, then we have no choice but to support the R2P initiative of ‘Human Rights’ oriented European states to intervene to ‘save lives’.
Citizens with Wechsler Classification IQ’s of between 90 to 109 who follow the mainstream media, and those with IQ’s of 110 to 119 who follow the controlled ‘alternative’ media will be susceptible to the promoted simulacrum, their lives and existences having hitherto prepared them to follow the proposed logic combined with emotional appeal. Because this is the vast majority of people who follow news about world events, the pull will be quite significant.
US is Making Poroshenko Lose
On the Military Front: Following the logic of this scenario, we are led to another critical question. Something which should be critically examined is what appears to be the unnecessary losses taken by the Ukrainian side. The US has only given to the Poroshenko led KJ forces a relatively minimal amount of support; primarily they have relied on their own resources, and have been helped with replacement tanks and supplies from neighboring NATO countries, but also with basically outdated (even if well maintained) equipment and heavy weapons. While it is true that Ukraine has burned through about 110 to 130% of the air-force which they started with (meaning they’ve imported some), one would realize that if the US were really committed we would have seen a multi-billion dollar package including the leasing, lending, or sale of numerous advanced craft, able to carry out many hundreds of more sorties.
It had been sufficient to place significant pressure on the then NM’s who in turn were being supported by an increasing Russian trickle on the official level of operational, tactical, and then later more tangible material support going into August.
But to explain the classic tactical encirclement maneuvers used against KJ forces also means that the KJ was not being provided with US aerial and satellite intelligence which would have enabled them to avoid being foiled and routed for a consecutively running number of weeks hitherto.
If the US plan is to use the ‘Pravy Sektor’ as Al Qaeda/ISIS stratagem, then the erosion of Poroshenko’s support will continue in this scenario. This last week, he’s blitzed the ‘liberated’ areas, giving talks about having ‘Won the Peace’. Now he’s in the situation of trying to compromise the vision of two increasingly divergent groups who were responsible for his rise to ‘power’: regular order-loving Europhile/Russophobe Ukrainian liberals, and Pravy Sektor and Svoboda ultra right misanthropes and war aestheticists/romanticizers.
The battles that US war planners, who in effect control much of the operations already, have pushed onto the KJ forces are suspect in their costliness. Even when they believed they were ‘pushing back the NM forces’ (in reality, just marching to the actual front), their supplies were limited and units were left with poor coordination and communication. They would be told to hold positions that were liable to be hit, and were hit, and did not receive orders to change positions. A combination of these, and more, led to an eventual condition of distrust towards Poroshenko’s Kiev government. Meanwhile, the Pravy Sektor groups have used their being placed inside of larger units to propagandize among the regular conscripted men.
On the Economic Front: While the US has its own serious structural economic problems, it is still in the position to deliver significant military aid from its stockpiles, and is also able to print money. If one considers that QE1 alone was actually a series of three $700 billion dollar bailouts, followed by QE2, and if one also considers the enormous black budget which the US has for special military plans and related, one could see that ‘money exists’ to really arm and equip the KJ, and yet it does not. These are not economic issues, but ones of priority. This would seem to point to a thesis that the US is making Poroshenko lose. But what of Kiev’s own ability to create value on the economic front?
The Economic Front US policy has caused an ongoing near-collapse of the Ukrainian economic ‘system’. With the value of the Hryvnia having dropped below 15 to the dollar, inflation has seriously affected buying power, creating the roots of mass social unrest, and this has been coupled with a stagflationary decline in production without any of the substantive increase in exports that one would expect with such a drop in value.
Ukraine’s productive industries have all been hit beyond near-term repair or fixing. Some are leaving the country.
*Kherson Shipyard which was a leading ship producer is going bankrupt.
*Iron and Steel industry at standstill
*Zaporozhye automotive has announced a cut-back in production and lay-offs.
*Kremenchug car assembly plant is moving to Kazakhstan.
*Aircraft engine producer Motor-Sich is relocating to Russia.
* Mining industry not running
On top of this is a $15+ billion IMF debt which will be impossible to pay back – the framework of the loan was based around having these industries, and of course having the Donbass region and perhaps as well the Crimea. The mining industry in Donbass was producing a significant portion of the coal that powered industry. Even if alternative sources can be used, Ukraine is facing a major energy deficit with its supplies of Russian gas in serious question.
All of these are making the present Ukrainian government the most reviled in its history. There is only so much that can be done to blame Russia for things, as we have seen in the Arab Spring, the value of a removed responsible party can only go so far. Arab leaders attempted to explain that they did not control the price of bread in international markets, but bread riots and protests erupted nonetheless. While Blythe Masters was the individual charged with putting together the plan to shift the QE1 bailout into cornering the global perishable goods market, people took their protests not to the US embassy (at first) but to their own governments. Only in the case of Syria was the government able to stay in power. Ultimately people need somewhere they can go petition, protest, and make change. This will be the Ukrainian government’s undoing, and will set the stage for the Pravy Sektor seize of power as this US written script unfolds.
A Brief Description of the Execution
Chapter 1. In short, the US will covertly support a Euromajdan redux, but this time coupled perhaps with better organized armed march spectacle on Kiev or similar, reminiscent of Mussolini’s famous simulacrum March on Rome. Like in Rome, it will have the appearance of a radical change but in fact will be supported by numerous sections of the Ukrainian elite who will be taken along on a journey which, objectively, is likely to be outside of the scope of their long-term self interests. The US will employ both bribery and the immediate self-interest mechanism for some, and the use of false marketing (e.g. Intermarium) for others.
Yarosh, Lyasko Oleg, or similar will be charged with gathering all forces to make the spectacle of a putsch. Kolomoisky’s forces and others would join. They would, in this scenario, order back from the front these soldiers for the tactic, and collectively pressure Poroshenko and almost the entire Verkhovna Rada to step down. Yarosh has already threatened such on numerous occasions, but has carefully mitigated his speech in referring to ‘reforms’ within the legality of the Rada as the end game of such a March on Kiev. Naturally this time it would be quite different.
With these Pravy Sektor and Svoboda related battalions, as with others, their morale is presently very low; most accounts and reports from field indicate that they blame the Ukrainian government for corruption, inefficiency, and false promises such as failing to deliver needed materials, support systems, even correct artillery and basic food rations. Looting and pillaging have become a commonplace method of last resort, as well as quartering themselves in the homes of the over half million people who have fled. Pravy Sektor activist groups and football clubs still in Kiev, Lviv and surrounding country, towns and villages, will also be filed in by bus to join in. This time armed with firearms instead of bats, clubs, and chains, the simulacrum of an organic and native putsch will be projected over a very foreign high level US military intelligence operation complete with well orchestrated arrests, detentions, assassinations and the like.
The US will covertly overthrow Poroshenko and install the Pravy Sektor, but create an alternate hyperreality to denounce this and have surrealistic ‘grave concerns’ over those developments. Covertly the US will likely attempt an arrest, socio-political marginalization, or assassination of nearly the entire Ukrainian political and military establishment, as their attempts to root out individual agents of the FSB have to date been more or less unfruitful. The marginalization of the Party of Regions, and the banning of the Communist party in this regard have only a symbolic meaning, as actual pro-Russian agents had from the start been members not only of the Russophobic Ukrainian establishment but also Svoboda party and movement itself.
Notably was the former head of the Ukrainian Military Command and prior Navy, General Ihor Tenyukh, who was forced to resign after giving stand-down orders when legally stationed Russian naval personnel extended their sphere of operations to encompass the whole of Crimea following the now famous referendum. This is just one example of the extent to which the FSB had penetrated the entire Ukrainian establishment from many sides.
From this we can ascertain that that even this ‘Pravy Sektor’ government will contain much less of the original cast and crew that saw in the original show’s series. NATO can trust no-one here. Only US, English, Australian, and Israeli advisers; only Mossad, M16, CIA and FBI. No Ukrainians at any level of authority. It will be mostly fresh faces parading with the Pravy Sektor title. To deal with language barriers and for the building of trusted chains of command, militarized Mossad operatives and Israeli mercenaries fluent in Ukrainian, Polish, and/or Russian will be used to fill in the gaps created by the ousting of the FSB infiltrated old Ukrainian apparatchiks.
Just like ISIS, from Al Nusra, from Al Qaeda, from Maktab al-Khidamat, it may go through some rebranding which accompanies the introduction of new directors, producers, and actors. This means we might expect something like a ‘Night of Long Knives’ tactic to be used at least once or twice.
This first part accomplishes the US goal of ultimately confusing the issue, changing the entire discourse, and implementing what is really the third stage of creating a failed state. How is this the actually the third stage? That requires seeing the pattern from the specifics.
The General Strategy – Template Used in All Cases
1.) Color Revolution protest-to-power Tactic combined with,
2.) Arab Spring uprising with US backed militias and civil war, install ‘democracy’,
3.) A transition from nominally stable ‘pro-western’ government into a failed state ruled by extremist ideological warlords,
Chapter 2. Here we have arrived at the total end of the Ukrainian state. Part 3.) of the General Strategy is entirely realized.
The Pravy Sektor are established as the “National-Socialist” Uniate Church “Wahhabis”. The media, as we explored in the section above, is already committed to exposing their war-crimes. If Russian and Novorossiyan efforts to stop them are successful in the east, there will be more in the west. If rank and file Pravy Sektor are unwilling to do this, the US will resort to the special employment of a combination of torture-loving misanthropes and an occasional hoax.
Also, we must recall that on the Novorossiyan side, there are also people the west can reasonably call ‘far-right extremists’, such as the Varyag Battalion, RNU, and Nazbol connected brigades. This will be used to add additional confusion to the issue, as the western liberal mind suffers from both a tendency to equivocate or fall for the equivocation of others, and to abuse or be abused by broad categories lacking in nuance. Thus the Europeans supporting Poroshenko, and not the Russians supporting the Novorossiyans, will be able to present themselves to their own audience as the neutral arbiters.
The Pravy Sektor will have the job of destroying all remnants of civil society and shatter the illusion of the pluralism which the middling classes find comfort in, and will secure the important areas of resource extraction for western banking and industrial conglomerates. As Monsanto has an interest in soil-rich parts of eastern Ukraine, and as they are also strongly connected to the Academi mercenary firm, we can expect to see Anglophonic world, Polish, and Baltic state mercenaries involved in securing similar areas.
Naturally in discussing the coup tactic, with a view towards the failed state strategy, comes the issue of US investments, fracking, energy, telecom, etc. being enjoyed by friends, relatives, and colleagues of the US political establishment. Like in Iraq, small areas of control will the the desired outcome, backed by private armed groups will oversee the security of these places, especially where natural and raw resource extraction will take place. If public information or journalism reveals this scenario, those armed groups will be deemed ‘moderates.
But the US also uses the spectacle of US investment to confuse their real aims: investment seems in many minds to be connected to development and conditions of prosperity, wrongly associated with ‘peace’. Because the marketing and the product often diverge in these scenarios, it is likely, as before with the original coup, that numerous elements of the Ukrainian elite will act in line with US expectations even if in reality their own fortunes will ultimately be destroyed.
Quite importantly in this phase the Pravy Sektor will be able to accomplish several tasks with one important blow: they will sabotage and destroy the gas pipeline. This will accomplish the US goal of eliminating roughly 65% of the capacity of Russian gas into Europe (Nord-Stream delivers the balance), as part of their plan to destroy Europe and Russia economic integration. It also ends no small amount of the leverage which Russia has on both Europe and Ukraine to resolve this matter in a way which protects Russian sovereignty and national interest. Also it is a pseudo-paradigm shifting act. How so?
The Pravy Sektor ideology is not only based in Nazi aesthetics but in Fascist asceticism. They believe this will purify their people and rid them of the materialist, western, consumerist disease of modernism and capitalism. They think the people will grow stronger by having less; they will grow closer by having their enemies farther from them. They know that people will have only each other keep each other warm. There will be a return to cottage industry. Candles will illuminate the home at night. It will be a general return to the 13th century. In this sense as well, they are nearly identical to Wahhabis.
There are many elements of truth to their critique of capitalist and consumerist western civilization, and moreover there is no reason to think, in the abstract, that their solutions might not be required given their desired goal. But in a similar way to how some of the finer points of Islam are used by Wahhabism to the benefit of US and Zionist regional hegemony, in turn it is the very same consumerist and materialist west which is manipulating this false simulacrum war against the modern world in order to perpetuate the actual-reality of the modern world, indefinitely.
These are not contradictions whose understanding comes easily, because the world of man as it is created is not naturalistic, but constructed. Thus in understanding the strategies of states and supra-national powers, we must understand that it is an intentionally constructed maze which not only meanders but leads to dead ends and traps. Radical promises of liberation and paradigm shifts are often the opposite.
What will ultimately happen prior to any foreign intervention, is that these various Pravy Sektor groups will break down into various competing groups of warlords who use ideology as the main organizing principle holding their warband together. They will take all of Ukrainians with them in the descent into post-apocalyptic madness.
Regional War, Total War – Problems and Solutions
The Pravy Sektor Junta can do all sorts of things to expand the scope of the war. This can include attacks on Polish border guards and more, even raids deep into Polish territory. On a given day that NATO is having most of the Polish army performing an anti-Russian drill near the Baltic Sea, Pravy Sektor can ‘storm’ into Poland and steal numerous tanks and aircraft from an unprotected military base. Those who question the timing or possibility of such an attack without sufficient Polish response will be easily dismissed as conspiracy theorists. Of course this attack would be virtual, not real, and would only be used to explain away the fact that Pravy Sektor was being suddenly and mysteriously armed. We might see a large caravan of them in Toyota trucks, perhaps.
Poland may in fact be key to expanding the war into a broader regional war, and could draw in Latvia and Lithuania. Pravy Sektor attacks on Poland would give Poland a legal right to attack Ukraine. The problem of course being that the US goal is to destroy Ukraine, but not just once – to keep the fighting ongoing so that reconstruction and redevelopment cannot occur. At a certain point it may force the Russians into a situation of defensive forward occupation of the Baltic, deepening the scope of the conflict and invoking NATO’s mutual defense clauses.
Moving towards regional and total war, there are number of other serious standing issues which the US may be able to solve by using the Al Qaeda/ISIS strategy
1.) Problem: EU-Atlanticists (primarily banking) and EU-Eurasianists (primarily industrialists and retailers) are splitting over Ukraine. There are also known fence sitters. Among known fence sitters are those pretending to be such. Among EU-A’s and EU-E’s are also those pretending that they are each other. This is a problematic mess for the US. It is difficult to tell whom is leading the other. There is a Russian strategy at play of bringing fence sitters over to the side of the EU-E’s in order to create further pressure in that discourse favoring the Russian position.
Solution: Post-coup, the US will organize for the EU-A fence sitters to to ‘see the light’ and lead that EU-A’s go over to the side of the EU-E’s to basically support Russia ‘in words’ against Pravy Sektor Junta. That will solve through confusion for some time the issue of the EU-E’s and the EU-A’s. They will all seem to be on the same side of the Ukraine conflict – Remove the Pravy Sektor Junta.
This will create the simulacrum of unanimity on the issue of Ukraine. NATO, the EU and Russia will all be in the position of roundly condemning the ‘Fascist takeover’ of Ukraine. Once this goes into effect, the talking points and public dissemination will be impossible to untangle. It is impossible to be against Nazis for the wrong reasons, in western thinking.
2.) Problem: The Russian propaganda angle has increasingly taken hold in western Europe; while the actual uprising of the Donbass people is only secondarily ideological, and at that it is a mix of Ultra-nationalism, religious Orthodoxy, Soviet Nostalgia, Eurasianism, Communism, Russian irredentism, and National Bolshevim, is lost upon much of the sympathetic Western European audience. They believe that this is a battle of Russian Leftists against NATO backed Rightist Nazis. There are strong elements of truth to this, but it is far from the whole truth. At any rate, they have, using bottom up politics, helped to shift the public discourse in the direction of Novorossiya
Solution: Western press continue to expose the ‘nazi’ nature of the KJ, now led by Pravy Sektor, but also expose the Ultra-nationalists, religious Orthodox, Eurasianists, irredentists, and Nazbols as equivalent in both moral abstraction and activity to the KJ nazis. Since they are all nazis, it doesn’t matter if some NATO actions against the west nazis accidentally strike the east nazis.
3.) Problem: Euro-skepticism has never been bigger in Europe, and the ideas of the far-right and far-left are becoming more popular as polar extremes against the bourgeois center. Leftists are realizing they’ve lost more than their surplus value in the process of capitalist development, and long for a simpler bygone era where kin was kin, but combined with some of the luxuries of modern technology, but none of the war and imperialism that plagued the 20th century. They’ve made some intersections with the far right. The far right are realizing that they need a real anti-globalist economic model in order to preserve their culture, nationality or race, and heritage, and that this economic model looks a lot more like socialism than capitalism. They are also seeing that choosing to live among one’s own kind is not the same as being a supremacist towards others. In essence, the bourgeois in Europe can see which way the wind is blowing, and they need to reverse that flow.
Solution: Force the right and the left back into stupid and malleable roles: As an intended side effect, fake-far right Europeans will once against become ‘white-supremacist’ groups, and will also grow as both a direct and indirect product of this Pravy Sektor example, producing a greater number of neo-nazi jihadis both going into Ukraine, and within their own European countries to clash more violently with Islamists and then Leftists in Europe. The European clash will incidentally make it very difficult for critics to say that the US is supporting both the Islamists and the neo-nazis from essentially the same game-book if they are apparently fighting each other. This fits in precisely with the 4GW doctrine of blurring the lines between civilians and combatants.
It will also bring to the forefront the divide and conquer strategy of the ‘Clash of Civilizations’ promoted by the US Neo-Cons in the last decade. The European clash will coincide with economic woes in general, due to the trillion euros plus hit to the economy which sanctions on Russia are projected to take. Rather than a needed class struggle with strong elements of a pan-European and anti-materialist cultural renewal project, it will pit Muslim migrants against native Europeans; problematically ignoring a fight against those on top who both created the economic problems and opened the doors to a flood of culturally incompatible migrants.
Fake-far left European ‘guilt-ridden white-supremacist’ groups will trip over their own Russophobia, and believe that only they, the holders of liberal civilization and pluralism, are in the moral-ethical position to act on behalf of Ukrainians and ethnic Russians. They will support NATO action in Ukraine in the name of human rights. It really is a no-brainer, because ”Nazi” means ”human rights violator”.
4.) Problem: Russia has leverage over Ukraine and Europe with its gas pipelines. Ukraine needs the gas to fuel industry and to heat the homes of people.
Solution: Exterminate or ethnically cleanse more of the eastern half of the population. Blow up the gas pipelines and revert to an agrarian sustenance based economy mirroring the 13th century. Wealthy Ukrainians in Kiev have foreign goods shipped in for their use at a significant cost. The rest move to Switzerland or London. Prostitution, drugs, and gambling become the main stay of normal life.
5.) Problem: The FSB is entirely infiltrated in many crevices of the Ukrainian high command, all the way to the field. This is another reason why the US cannot give the KJ too much – whatever they give, can go over to the other side. They cannot give the KJ access to their satellites and aerial ground imaging, because then the Russians would see exactly what the US and KJ sees.
Solution: The coup takes out everyone. All are replaced by Israeli and US military leadership and intelligence. Mercenaries as well play an increased role.
Russian Awareness and Counter-Measures
Russia would of course be aware that there is a growing chance of this happening in any event, but a greater chance if things escalate the wrong way. This may help to explain other reasons why Russia has essentially helped build the credibility of Poroshenko, going back to the May elections. It also explains why it wants to control the escalation in a certain way which give Poroshenko numerous face saving opportunities and ways to remain in office in the face of growing internal opposition. If Russia sees the coming coup as an eventuality, then its present tactics are part of a strategy of a.) preventing a coup or b.) forcing a delayed realization of the coup tactic.
For further reading on the subject of the coup tactic which is often a requirement at the under-graduate level in our field, it is recommended to familiarize oneself with at least one of the three following titles:
Confessions of an Economic Hit Man, John Perkins , 2004
Coup d’État: A Practical Handbook, by Edward Luttwak, 1979
The Coup: Tactics in the Seizure of Power, Bruce W. Farcau, 1994
That Strelkov is known for having irredentist views, and Gubarev is known for having led the ostensibly neo-nazi RNU group of ethnic-Russians in Donbass, may have been a factor in their removal within this hypothetical, as the Russians prepare for an intensification of the media war, attempting to avoid one of the problems listed in Chapter 2 in the Execution section above. It is true that the new faces we have seen do not have questionable pasts, and speak more clearly about ‘social justice’ and ‘liberation of our people’.
Our scenario also means that Russia does not want to see Poroshenko go, until conditions arise for his replacement along Russian terms. An alternate route is for Poroshenko to switch sides, as he is without exception a US puppet. This would be the ‘Yanukovichization of Poroshenko’. This would be dificult, but what Russia needs of course is a pro-Russia government in Kiev.
For this to work with Poroshenko, they must accurately assess his motives. If he has been bitten by the ‘state power bug’, then they have a better shot with him in the event that they can demonstratively show that the US wants him out and Pravy Sektor in.
So its possible then that Russia can also be managing this already with Poroshenko. This would include the sending of Pravy Sektor battalions into bad situations, promising them reinforcements and heavy artillery and tanks, and then supplying none, only realized after its too late, after they are surrounded and destroyed.
With their own military and information war initiative, the Russians would seem at first to be in a very tight spot. There would be a lack of clear messaging which would allow Russia to act on behalf of the people of a foreign country, but not NATO. Poland borders Ukraine as much as Russia does. Additionally, a pro-US Poroshenko – as the universally recognized legitimate leader of Ukraine – would have the authority to beg European countries to intervene to restore civilian government. If the Russians can persuade him first, then he might invite the Russians; this much could be key.
While seemingly tight at first, this is not without precedent. In 1999, Putin comes to power and his first major international move was in defense of Yugoslavia, on the Serbian side. He did so as ostensibly a US ally, and claimed a united Russia-US interest, but in actual fact frustrated the US effort in ways which have only become realizable to us in a more full form over the last three or four years.
In this case, with or without Poroshenko’s blessing, because Russia will again be within the role play of being a US or EU ally against the Pravy Sektor, Russia suddenly scrambles its forces for a blitz occupation of Kiev, treats all Pravy Sektor people as suspects in a police action, and declares the whole thing over, with elections to take place in four months.
However, this is a best case scenario, and all situations which would tend to increase the number of players, increase, the hostilities, also increases the variables and the introduction of unknowns, making the real situation increasingly volatile and threatening to the future existence of human life.
Fourth Generation Warfare involves dissemblance and memetic warfare, manipulation of mass-publics as well as target elite’s very understanding of reality itself. Being able to understand the simulacrum created in the pursuing of this kind of warfare requires a multidisciplinary approach involving a number of both hard sciences and social sciences. The generalist will have a broader view than the specialist, and must excel over the specialist in a number of key areas which the most critical specialists are oriented in. The quality of analysis will reflect the development of the general-as-specialist in a given area of expertise.
Strategy is not a naturally occurring phenomenon, and military matters defy the economics of efficiency and simplicity. They also require explanations entirely opposite from the Occam’s razor used to explain phenomenon in the natural sciences. Instead, replication, redundancy and complication of physical strategic points as well as complexity of plans are required, rather than avoided.
The US is presently using a very similar strategy in Syria and Iraq to what is described here. This itself is evidence that the US has 1.) the inclination to use such a strategy 2.) experience using this strategy. 3.) success using this strategy. and 4.) given how we’ve contextualized the present US dilemma, a possible need to use this strategy.
Taken all together, it is incumbent upon us to examine in greater detail the possibility of the use of this strategy and begin to publicly expose it and inoculate mass publics to its potential use in Ukraine, as it threatens to expand the way and usher in an unmanageable increase in this period of instability and constant war.